Venezuela Election: Uncertainty & What’s Next?

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is in U.S. custody awaiting trial on narco-terrorism charges, following a swift and unexpected operation by American Special Forces. The move has left Venezuelans grappling with uncertainty as Vice President Delcy Rodriguez vows continuity, and questions arise about the future of the nation and its vast oil reserves.

Confusion and Uncertainty in Caracas

“There’s so much confusion,” said commercial salesman Ronald Figuera, 44, who lives less than 1.5km from where Maduro was apprehended on a Venezuelan military base in southern Caracas. “It was so fast. We don’t know anything about anything.”

The Pentagon and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment regarding the strike in La Boyera.

From Democracy Concerns to Drug Trafficking Charges

For years, Washington has maintained that Maduro was illegitimate and sought his removal. The rationale for his removal has evolved over time. Initially, the focus was on the preservation of democracy, following the disputed May 2018 presidential election, which was rejected by the Venezuelan opposition and much of the international community.

In 2019, the Trump administration backed then-National Assembly President Juan Guaido’s bid to replace Maduro. However, Guaido later fled the country, and the U.S. began building a legal case centered on drug trafficking.

In March 2020, U.S. federal prosecutors charged Maduro and other government figures with leading a large drug-trafficking network, known as the Cartel de los Soles, allegedly “to flood the US with cocaine.” This charge was cited by U.S. officials as the primary justification for his abduction.

Oil and American Dominance

Former President Trump, in remarks following the operation, repeatedly emphasized Venezuela’s oil reserves. He stated that American energy companies are poised to invest billions of dollars and assume control of the nation’s oil resources, referencing the nationalization of Venezuela’s oil industry in the 1970s.

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that Trump was “deadly serious about re-establishing American deterrent and dominance in the Western hemisphere.” The White House had previously published a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, promising to “restore American pre-eminence in the Western Hemisphere.”

Regional Concerns and Potential Instability

Carolina Jimenez Sandoval, the Venezuelan president of the Washington Office on Latin America, connected the events to the new doctrine, stating that the capture of Maduro sends a “very powerful message across Latin America that the US is willing to go through with its threats.”

“They’re not saying they’re going to work through alliances; they’re saying they’re going to impose their will through any means, including military power,” she said.

Trump did not mention Venezuelan democracy in his speech, and the White House has not signaled plans to replace Maduro with Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, the apparent winner of the 2024 election, or Maria Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize nominee and opposition leader.

Renata Segura, director of the Latin America and the Caribbean programme at the International Crisis Group, expressed concern about potential power struggles within Venezuela. Dozens of men armed with rifles were seen traveling through Caracas on motorcycles today, identified as members of a pro-government gang known as a colectivo.

“It’s very clear they have not really thought through what could happen next after removing Maduro,” Segura said. “And that’s very disturbing.”

People in Caracas are returning to daily life, lining up to buy food and water. More businesses are open than yesterday, though owners are limiting the number of customers inside. Others have turned to church for prayer.

“It’s still the same people in power,” Figuera said. “Everyone here is waiting to see what happens next.”

A police officer, speaking anonymously, said he knew Maduro’s time in power was over when the first bombs were heard. He expressed uncertainty about the future, questioning how long Rodriguez would remain president and stating that the “gringos” are now in control. “If anyone does anything against the gringos, they will face the same fate as Maduro.”