Maduro’s Fall: Russia’s Unease & Shifting Venezuela Ties

A surprise raid on the capital of Venezuela led to the capture of the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, in an operation carried out by the United States. Following the capture, the U.S. announced it would rule the nation for an indefinite period, a move that has drawn condemnation but also a degree of grudging respect from Russia.

Russian Reaction to Venezuela Coup

Russian officials have publicly condemned the attack as a violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. However, beyond the official rhetoric, there is a sense of respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of the coup, an operation Moscow itself once envisioned but failed to execute due to intelligence failures and Ukrainian resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora, which has close ties to the Russian military. The channel added that the operation unfolded “fast, dramatic and decisive,” contrasting it with Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Pro-war voices within Russia are now engaged in soul-searching, questioning how Russia’s planned blitzkrieg in Ukraine evolved into a protracted war. Olga Uskova, a pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, expressed “shame” on Russia’s behalf, noting the brazenness of the U.S. intervention.

Margarita Simonyan, head of RT, also commented on Telegram, stating that Moscow had reason to “be jealous” of the swiftness of the U.S. operation.

Venezuela’s Alliances and Russia’s Limited Options

For over two decades, Venezuela sought to build a network of allies – including Russia, China, Cuba, and Iran – to counter U.S. influence. Despite Russia’s foreign minister pledging support for Maduro’s regime as recently as late December, few analysts expected Moscow to intervene significantly.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has witnessed key allies weaken or fall from power, including Bashar al-Assad in Syria and an increasingly weakened Iran, highlighting the limits of the Kremlin’s reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign policy expert who advises the Kremlin. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally… Yet providing any real assistance… is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Analysts say Putin’s priority is Ukraine, and maintaining a good relationship with Donald Trump on that front outweighs the fate of Caracas. The Kremlin appeared unwilling to risk angering Trump over a distant theatre.

Tangible Costs for Moscow

Russia’s loss of Venezuela carries several costs. A U.S.-friendly government in Caracas could grant American military specialists access to Russian-made weapons systems supplied to Venezuela, including S-300VM air-defence systems and Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela that are unlikely to be recovered.

A more pressing concern is oil. U.S. access to Venezuela’s reserves could lower global prices, threatening a key source of income for Russia. Oleg Deripaska, a Russian billionaire industrialist, warned that U.S. control of Venezuelan oilfields could lead to a price cap of $50 a barrel.

Some in Moscow see a bleak kind of optimism, suggesting Trump’s actions could usher in a more power-based international order, a model Russia has long championed. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president, approved of Trump’s approach, stating that the removal of Maduro was driven by oil interests, not legal concerns.