South Africa’s national defense force is currently unable to effectively repel an external attack, according to defense analysts, due to years of funding cuts and a loss of critical skills. While an immediate threat is not anticipated, experts say the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is significantly impaired.
SANDF Ill-Equipped to Counter External Threats
Even without the funding losses, defense analyst Dean Wingrin stated the U.S. military possesses a superior capability and would be able to engage with the South African military more easily than it did with Venezuela’s armed forces during a recent strike. “With the current state of the SANDF, we are not in a position to fend off any attack,” he said.
South Africa’s geographic location presents a logistical challenge to the U.S., but the U.S. military has the resources, including aircraft carriers, long-range missiles, and strategic bombers, to overcome it. Wingrin noted the significant damage inflicted on Iran despite its modern air defense systems and advance warning of strikes, stating, “Yet their military still suffered badly during the limited engagement.”
He added that it is unrealistic to expect South Africa to defend itself should the U.S. engage in regime change outside of its current focus on the western hemisphere. Wingrin believes South Africa should prioritize equipping and funding its military to be comparable to its African peers, and avoid further capability losses.
SA Cannot Afford to Lose Any More Capability
“The best defence for SA and its economy in the new world order is to re-evaluate its past practices and make wise political pronouncements and economic policies, putting non-alignment into practice,” Wingrin added.
Helmoed-Römer Heitman, another defense expert, suggested South Africa’s submarine fleet, while modest, could serve as a deterrent, forcing potential adversaries to carefully consider the risks of targeting the country’s waters. However, he acknowledged a small submarine force of around six vessels would not deter a major power with significant interests.
Heitman stated that major powers – the U.S., China, India, and Russia – are unlikely to be concerned by South Africa, describing the country as “too far away and too unimportant.” He did note two potential exceptions: a war between China and the West, which would require secure sea routes around the Cape of Africa, and a potential proxy conflict within Africa.
Proxy Force Inserted into Part of Africa if ‘Cold War’
Heitman recalled that the late defense minister Joe Modise believed South Africa’s three Daphné submarines were a key factor limiting Soviet involvement during the Cold War, which drove the push for new submarine acquisitions.
Should a “cold war” scenario emerge between China and the West, Heitman suggested a proxy force could be deployed to Africa. He said South Africa would need the ability to counter such a force or make deployment and support too risky, with a submarine force playing a crucial role in achieving this.
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