Trump’s Venezuela Oil Plan: $100B & Exxon’s Doubt

President Donald Trump has sought at least $100 billion in investment for Venezuela’s oil industry, but faced skepticism from oil executives who cited political and economic instability as barriers to entry. The executives acknowledged Venezuela’s vast energy reserves but indicated significant changes are needed to make the country an attractive investment.

Trump Seeks Oil Industry Funding for Venezuela

During a meeting at the White House, Trump stated that increased oil production from Venezuela would lead to lower energy prices. However, oil company bosses expressed caution, citing past experiences and current conditions.

ExxonMobil’s chief executive Darren Woods noted the company’s assets had been seized in Venezuela twice before, stating that a third attempt to re-enter the market would require “pretty significant changes” and that the country was currently “uninvestable.”

Venezuela has a long and complex history with international oil firms. Chevron is currently the last remaining major American oil company operating in the country, alongside a handful of companies from Spain and Italy.

Trump indicated his administration would control which firms are permitted to operate in Venezuela, stating, “You’re dealing with us directly. You’re not dealing with Venezuela at all. We don’t want you to deal with Venezuela.”

The White House has announced plans to selectively roll back sanctions restricting Venezuelan oil sales, coordinating with interim authorities led by Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez. Officials also intend to control sales to maintain leverage over the government, and have already seized several oil tankers carrying sanctioned crude.

Venezuela’s oil production has declined in recent decades due to disinvestment, mismanagement, and U.S. sanctions, currently accounting for less than 1% of global supply at roughly one million barrels per day. Chevron currently accounts for about a fifth of the country’s output.

While ExxonMobil plans to send a technical team to assess the situation, and Repsol aims to triple its production under favorable conditions, analysts suggest substantial investment is unlikely without improved stability and legal certainty.

“They are being as polite as humanly possible, and being as supportive as they can, without committing actual dollars,” said David Goldwyn, president of Goldwyn Global Strategies. He added that Exxon and Shell are unlikely to invest billions of dollars without physical security, legal certainty, and a competitive fiscal framework.

Smaller companies may be more willing to invest, but those investments are expected to be in the $50 million range, far short of Trump’s $100 billion goal. Rystad Energy estimates that tripling production by 2040 would require $8 billion to $9 billion in new investments annually.

Analysts suggest that significant investment would also require subsidies and political stability, and that lower oil prices are not expected in the near future. “It’s going to be difficult to see big commitments before we have a fully stabilised political situation and that is anybody’s guess when that happens,” said Rystad Energy’s chief economist, Claudio Galimberti.