Soviet Planning & Ukraine: Russia’s Cold Strategy

Ukraine is experiencing its most challenging winter in recent memory as Russia targets its energy infrastructure, leaving approximately one million Ukrainians without heating amid sub-freezing temperatures.

Russian Attacks on Ukraine’s Heating Infrastructure

With January temperatures dropping below -15C (5F), Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine’s energy systems. The capital, Kyiv, has been a primary target. Following a Russian bombardment overnight into January 24, nearly 6,000 apartment blocks in Kyiv were left without heating, according to Mayor Vitaly Klitschko.

This is the third such attack targeting Kyiv’s heating infrastructure in just over two weeks, following strikes on January 9 and 20 that also left hundreds of thousands of residents without heat. One Kyiv resident, Rita, described the situation to the BBC, stating, “Living in Kyiv is a bit of a gamble these days…If you have heating and gas, there is no electricity and water. If you have electricity and water, there is no heating.” She added that she now sleeps wearing a hat and multiple layers of clothing.

Centralized Heating System Vulnerabilities

Ukraine’s reliance on apartment blocks with communal central heating exacerbates the problem. These systems, where water is heated centrally and pumped to radiators, are vulnerable because heating plants are large and impact thousands of people when targeted. Ukraine reports that all of its power plants have now been hit.

Disruptions to electricity supplies also occur, but while generators or battery packs can provide some relief, heating is more difficult to restore, especially without electricity to power heaters. Kyivteploenergo, the city’s heating and hot water supplier, stated that the “absolute majority” of Kyiv homes rely on its services, though the exact number is being withheld for security reasons.

In Zaporizhzhia, a frontline city with a population of 750,000, almost three-quarters of residents depend on central heating, according to Maksym Rohalsky, head of the local association of apartment block dwellers.

Legacy of Soviet-Era Infrastructure

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, approximately 11 million Ukrainian households relied on central heating, compared to seven million with autonomous heating systems. The prevalence of this system is a legacy of large-scale construction programs initiated across the Soviet Union in the 1950s.

Cities in the former USSR are characterized by ubiquitous nine-story “panelki” buildings made of prefabricated concrete, and smaller five-story “khrushchevki” blocks, named after Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. These buildings are served by large “TETs” – heat and electricity centrals – which generate both heat and power.

According to Ukrainian energy expert Yuriy Korolchuk, “Ukraine inherited the Soviet heating system and it hasn’t changed anything, it stays predominantly centralised.” He added that these plants were not designed to withstand missile or drone attacks, exposing existing vulnerabilities.

Korolchuk believes this is a new tactic employed by Russia, noting that such strikes were not common in previous winters. He also suggested that ongoing negotiations to end the war may be a factor, representing a form of pressure.

The Ukrainian government is planning to address this vulnerability by mandating individual heating points in apartment blocks, but undoing decades of Soviet urban planning will be a lengthy and complex process.