EU Loans & Liabilities 2024: Risks & Outlook

Government guarantees in European Union countries totaled significant amounts in 2024, with the Netherlands, Finland, and Italy recording the highest levels, while Cyprus continued to have the largest stock of non-performing loans. Data published by Eurostat today provides a detailed look at contingent liabilities and non-performing loans across the EU.

Government Guarantees Across the EU

The most common form of contingent liabilities in EU countries are government guarantees on the liabilities, and occasionally assets, of third parties. In 2024, the Netherlands recorded the highest levels of government guarantees at 31.0% of GDP, followed by Finland (17.0%) and Italy (14.6%). Ireland, Czechia, and Bulgaria recorded rates equal to or less than 1% of GDP.

In most EU countries, the central government is the primary guarantor. However, Finland, Sweden, France, and Denmark show a notable level of guarantees from local governments.

Liabilities of Public Corporations

The liabilities of public corporations classified outside general government varied widely in 2024. Germany recorded the highest amounts at 84.4% of GDP, ahead of the Netherlands (73.1%), Luxembourg (65.0%), and France (61.9%).

In contrast, Slovakia (3.4%), Spain (4.3%), Cyprus (7.3%), and Romania (8.7%) recorded public corporation liabilities of less than 10% of GDP.

Non-Performing Loans and Public-Private Partnerships

Cyprus continued to have the highest level of non-performing loans (assets) of the general government in 2024, at 9.0% of GDP. Other countries reported stock of non-performing loans below 1% of GDP, with Croatia (0.8%), Greece (0.6%), and Sweden (0.5%) reporting the highest percentages.

Liabilities related to off-balance public-private partnerships (PPPs) were below 2% of GDP, with nine EU countries reporting no such liabilities. Portugal had the highest share (1.2% of GDP), followed by Slovakia (1.0%) and Latvia (0.6%). These PPP liabilities are predominantly related to motorway projects.