Democracy vs. Authoritarianism: Winning the Information War

Democracies are increasingly facing a surge in hybrid warfare tactics employed by authoritarian regimes, but have yet to develop effective strategies to counter these threats, according to a new analysis. The report highlights the need for a coordinated, proactive approach to defend against attacks targeting citizens’ trust in democratic institutions and societal cohesion.

The Rise of Hybrid Warfare

Authoritarian regimes like Russia, China, and Iran have significantly increased their use of hybrid warfare over the past decade. A recent report reveals a range of attacks experienced across all 27 member states of the European Union since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, including cyber operations, disinformation campaigns, political subversion, and even kinetic operations like sabotage and targeted killings.

Undermining Democratic Institutions

These attacks, while seemingly isolated, share a unified purpose: to erode trust in democratic institutions, political parties, and governance, ultimately dividing liberal societies and weakening international organizations like the EU and NATO. The overarching aim of every attack – whether a drone incursion, ransomware attack, or deepfake – is to manipulate citizens’ perceptions.

Cognitive Warfare and Technological Imbalance

The cognitive domain is particularly vulnerable to manipulation, with rapidly evolving technology allowing authoritarian actors to target citizens at unprecedented scale and precision. The dominance of U.S. and Chinese companies in the digital information ecosystem creates a reliance on foreign industry and political attitudes, hindering independent defense efforts. Authoritarian regimes are exploiting algorithmic systems and, increasingly, AI data voids to manipulate citizens at both macro and micro levels, leading to what analysts call “epistemic corrosion.”

Current Strategies Fall Short

Despite growing awareness of these threats, current defensive strategies remain largely reactive and siloed. Governments often address the challenge with tactical responses rather than proactive measures that raise the costs for adversaries. Democracies have not yet transitioned from simply recognizing and exposing the threat to systematically preventing its impacts, mounting effective deterrents, or developing their own hybrid warfare capabilities.

Recommendations for a More Effective Strategy

To counter hybrid and cognitive warfare, the analysis proposes three key recommendations:

Establish a Counter-Hybrid Doctrine

Nations need a comprehensive strategic plan demonstrating a willingness to respond to hybrid attacks in a flexible and asymmetric manner, utilizing all instruments of state power. This includes asserting the potential need for reactive and offensive capabilities in the domains where authoritarian regimes operate, mapping adversaries’ vulnerabilities, and adhering to democratic principles while fostering digital independence.

Organize Government and Build Coalitions

Governments should appoint a lead agency or coordinator to address hybrid warfare holistically, breaking down silos across different departments and intelligence services. Building flexible coalitions with allies, even outside traditional channels, is also crucial. The establishment of a Hybrid Warfare War Room, bringing together diverse sectors of society, could facilitate strategic responses and preparedness exercises.

Prioritize Strategic Communications

Democracies must effectively counter authoritarian narratives, both domestically and internationally. This involves trumpeting successes in countering hybrid threats, articulating the human costs of these attacks, adapting best practices from related fields, empowering civil society, and leveraging technology to reach audiences in authoritarian information environments.

The urgency of the situation demands immediate action, as authoritarian regimes will continue their hybrid warfare efforts. The future of liberal democracy is at stake.