Israel’s expanding invasion of Lebanon risks destabilizing a country already facing collapse, with nearly one million people displaced as fighting intensifies between Israeli forces and the Iran-backed militia, Hezbollah.
Lebanon on the Brink
“This war can really be the tipping point,” said Sami Nader, director of the Institute of Political Science at Beirut’s Saint Joseph University. “That’s something that is threatening the very existence of this country.” Experts warn the invasion could lead to a power vacuum similar to the one that triggered Lebanon’s 15-year civil war in the 1970s and 1980s.
Since 2020, Lebanon has been grappling with multiple crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, an economic collapse, hyper-inflation, and the devastating 2020 Beirut port explosion. Conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, escalating since October 7, 2023, adds to the instability.
Weakening the Lebanese Government
“I think what basically the Israeli operation is doing is weakening the position of the Lebanese government further,” says Amin Saikal, a Middle East analyst who works with several Australian universities.
“If there is a collapse of the government, I think the grounds will be ripened for another round of civil war that’s not going to benefit anyone.”
The Risk for Israel
The Lebanese civil war, which lasted from 1974 to 1989, resulted in widespread destruction of Beirut, civilian massacres, and an increase in international terrorism, as well as Israeli invasions and occupation.
“Israel has done it before … in 1982 and then again in 2006,” Professor Saikal said. “And in the past, they have not been terribly successful. But this time, it looks like Israel is determined to remain in occupation of southern Lebanon.”
Under a 2024 ceasefire agreement, Lebanese authorities pledged to disarm Hezbollah, which holds significant power, particularly among Shia Muslims, and arguably surpasses the Lebanese state in influence. Lebanon’s new prime minister, Nawaf Salam, recently took the unusual step of publicly criticizing Hezbollah in early March.
“This is unprecedented,” said Mr. Nader. “However, the implementation does not match the talk.”
Hezbollah initiated missile attacks on Israel following the assassination of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, prompting immediate Israeli air strikes and ongoing conflict.
“This window of opportunity for the Lebanese government to assert its own control has vanished,” Mr. Nader said. “Now Israel is trying to dismantle Hezbollah through its own means.”
Israeli media report that ground troops are advancing further into southern Lebanon, with two additional divisions deployed to the northern border in preparation for expanded operations.
Former Israeli diplomat and political advisor Alon Pinkas stated that Israel does not seek a prolonged occupation.
“So an Israeli military operation in the south of Lebanon would achieve nothing other than turn Israeli soldiers into sitting ducks.”
Displaced with Nowhere to Go
In Beirut, parts of the city have been transformed into encampments for refugees from the south. Hundreds of tents have been erected along the Corniche and on reclaimed land near the port.
Aid worker Basma Alloush said many schools have become shelters for displaced families. Approximately 830,000 displaced people have registered with authorities, with 130,000 finding shelter in schools and stadiums.
“There’s a huge amount of people that are just displaced on the streets. They have nowhere to go,” Ms. Alloush told 7.30.
She added that those who have found shelter are in less-than-ideal conditions. “They are schools, they are football stadiums. They’re not intended for people to live there for a long time.”
Watch 7.30, Mondays to Thursdays 7:30pm on ABC iview and ABC TV
Discover more from Archyworldys
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
