Iranian Roulette: Investing & War Risk Diversification

Traders made $580 million in bets on the oil market 15 minutes before a post by U.S. President Donald Trump citing “productive” talks with Iranians, which subsequently lowered crude prices, according to reports. The transactions have raised questions about potential fraud and corruption amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Oil Market Activity and Allegations of Fraud

On March 23, during the third week of a two-day conflict in the Middle East, traders reportedly made $580 million in bets on the oil market. These transactions occurred shortly before President Trump posted on Truth Social about “productive” talks with Iranian officials, a statement that caused crude prices to fall. Observers have noted the timing as highly improbable for a legitimate bet.

Economist Paul Krugman described the situation as treason, a statement made despite the recent granting of immunity from the law to the President of the United States.

Corruption and Political Alignment

The article suggests that corruption is central to the “Maga coalition” and the broader U.S. political landscape. Trump’s support base is described as being motivated by “vibes, not policy,” while the financial backing of elites is contingent on potential profit.

War Profiteering and the Modern Economy

The author argues that war has become a monetizable venture, with opportunities for financial gain for a wide range of actors. Unlike past conflicts that involved sacrifices from citizens, the current environment allows for widespread participation in profiting from war.

Genocide as portfolio management

War profiteering has existed throughout history, with figures like “Daddy” Warbucks becoming wealthy during World War I. Recent conflicts, such as the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, involved large industrial multinationals and private military companies benefiting from contracts and inflated invoices.

The current situation represents a new phenomenon, with war becoming a speculative engine. Russia’s experience in Ukraine, following sanctions, demonstrated a capacity to thrive during conflict, transforming regions through cash-for-soldier campaigns.

Israel, influenced by the example of Russia, initiated a “Forever War” that would “reshape” the region and solidify Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s power. This strategy is linked to the interests of Gulf states and the broader financial elite.

Netanyahu’s approach is described as establishing a “quasi-democracy, or, in other words, a mafia-like state,” where a flattened Gaza is seen as a real estate opportunity.

The Role of Technology and Elite Networks

The United States, under both administrations, has continued to engage in military intervention in the Middle East. Trump’s actions are seen as part of a pattern of war profiteering, with market movements often preceding attacks.

A small group of global elites controls significant wealth and power, with companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Oracle benefiting from government contracts and technological advancements. These companies are involved in the development of artificial intelligence, which is being used in warfare.

The author contends that the current system represents “Planet Capture,” where the interests of a few powerful individuals and corporations supersede national interests. The pursuit of profit has become the primary driver of conflict, with little regard for the consequences.

The article concludes that the current state of affairs offers no future, only futures markets, and that the actions of leaders like Trump are driven by personal appetite and financial gain. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly DM168 newspaper, available countrywide for R35.