A research firm says it sent an analyst into the conflict zone to assess the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, finding that vessel traffic is continuing despite escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S.
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Activity Continues
Citrini Research, which previously issued a bearish call on artificial intelligence, dispatched an analyst to Oman’s Musandam Peninsula. The analyst traveled by boat to observe shipping activity firsthand. The firm’s report suggests the disruption to oil flow through the strait is partial and evolving, rather than a complete shutdown.
The analyst found approximately 15 ships passing through the strait daily, a figure below normal levels but indicating continued movement. Some tankers were observed traveling “completely dark on AIS,” a ship-tracking system that broadcasts a vessel’s location, speed, identity and route, suggesting ships are turning off their transponders.
According to the firm’s report posted on Substack, the actual shipping volume may be higher than reported data due to ships disabling their transponders. Interviews with fishermen, smugglers, and regional officials suggest Iran is selectively allowing ships to pass, requiring approval before transit near Iranian territory, creating a “functional checkpoint.”
Citrini believes the disruption will be prolonged and result in a lasting risk premium in oil markets. The firm favors December 2026 WTI contracts over the front month, anticipating that traffic could reach as high as 50% of pre-conflict levels within the next 4-6 weeks.
The findings are based on a single field trip and anecdotal accounts, making independent verification difficult given limited transparency in the region. Citrini did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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