Global PC Shipments Fall 4% as AI Demand Drives Memory Chip Shortage

The “Memory Crunch” and AI Influence

The downturn is attributed to a severe supply-driven “memory crunch,” characterized by soaring DRAM and NAND prices. According to Counterpoint Research, this shortage is driven largely by a sudden glut of AI data centers worldwide. Because AI applications have a high demand for processors and memory, availability for other applications—specifically PCs and smartphones—has been limited.

The impact on manufacturers has been significant. Apple’s 10-Q report for the quarter ended in March 2026 noted the company was experiencing supply constraints and increasing costs for memory (DRAM), storage (NAND), and advanced semiconductors. Similarly, HP reported during an April earnings call that memory and storage costs increased sequentially in Q2, a trend expected to continue through the second half of 2026. Dell stated in a May earnings call that the company is supply constrained for the second half of the year, clarifying that the issue is one of supply rather than demand.

Market Shifts and OEM Performance

The rising cost of components has forced original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to either absorb the costs or raise consumer prices. Many have chosen the latter, leading to chilled customer interest in budget machines. In response, some OEMs are reducing entry-level configurations or prioritizing higher-margin premium systems.

The competitive landscape in 2Q 2026 showed varying results among the top five vendors, who together captured nearly 78% of the global market:

• Lenovo: Maintained market leadership with a 25.6% share, though shipments fell 2% year-on-year to 16.6 million units.
• Apple: Saw shipments increase by 13% year-on-year, bolstered by the successful launch of the AppleInsider. Initially launched at $599, the device has since increased to $699.
• ASUS: Grew shipments by 4% year-on-year, capturing early adopters by backing diverse AI PC formats, including ProArt and Vivobook systems.
• Dell: Experienced a 6% year-on-year decrease in shipments, though its commercial focus provided some shielding from the collapse seen in consumer markets.
• HP: Suffered the largest drop among the top three players with an 8% year-on-year decline, due to high exposure to mid-range enterprise and mainstream consumer segments.

Outlook for 2026 and Beyond

Industry analysts warn that the current volatility is not a short-term issue. David Naranjo, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research, stated that the memory shortage has become a key factor changing the direction of the PC industry, shifting the market toward premium AI PCs where higher prices are more acceptable due to on-device AI features and better performance.

Console Shipments Forecast to Decline 19.5% in 2026 Due to Rising Costs

Further projections indicate a difficult road ahead:

• Full Year Decline: IDC predicts global PC shipments will decline by 11.3% for the full year, with Q4 shipments potentially falling by 20% year-on-year.
• Pricing: Component prices are expected to remain elevated through the second half of 2026. Relief on pricing is not anticipated until at least the end of 2027.
• Commercial Resilience: Demand in the commercial sector is expected to remain relatively resilient, driven by AI use and replacement cycles prompted by the end of Windows update support and migration from Windows 10 to Windows 11.

While Micron Technology and Samsung Electronics are doubling capital expenditures this year to increase memory capacity, experts suggest it may take at least two years before the situation is resolved through increased capacity or a leveling off of AI demand.