An abandoned SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is projected to slam into the Moon on August 5, 2026, traveling at roughly 8,700 kilometers per hour. Tracked extensively by independent astronomers, the collision will unleash 11.8 gigajoules of energy, gouging a fresh crater and lofting a high-altitude dust plume near Einstein crater.
Orbital Mechanics and the Impending Lunar Collision
An upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched in January 2025 is on a direct collision course with the Moon projected to impact the moon Aug. 5. The rocket originally deployed Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost-1 lander and ispace’s Hakuto-R Resilience lander toward the lunar surface during that 2025 mission.
While Blue Ghost-1 successfully touched down, contact was eventually lost with the Resilience lander, leaving the spent upper stage behind. Having completed its primary mission, the hardware lacked the necessary propellant to return toward Earth or escape into deep space. Instead, it settled into an unstable, highly elliptical orbit with a period of roughly 26 days that repeatedly carried it past the Moon and Earth.
“With its work done, the rocket lacked the fuel to return to Earth or move into deep space, It remained in an unstable orbit until gravity finally set it on a collision course with the lunar surface.”
Gregory Radisic, Fellow at the Centre for Space, Cyberspace and Data Law at Bond University, via The Conversation
Astronomers first noted that the stage was heading for an impact in May 2026. Calculations place the touchdown point near Einstein crater on the Moon’s western edge. Independent orbital analyst Bill Gray, author of the Project Pluto tracking software, monitored the object extensively using observations made by asteroid surveys and telescopes that accumulated 1,053 tracked positions as of February 2026.
Impact Physics, Energy Release, and Ejecta Dynamics
When the 13.8-meter-long, roughly 4,000-kilogram rocket stage strikes the lunar surface, the physical consequences will be measurable by professional instruments and potentially visible to dedicated observers. The stage will hit at a velocity of 2.43 kilometers per second, translating to approximately 8,700 kilometers per hour according to tracking calculations. That velocity equals an impact kinetic energy of 11.8 gigajoules, comparable to about 2.8 metric tons of TNT derived from the object’s mass and speed.
Researchers analyzing the impending event submitted a preprint to arXiv and Geophysical Research Letters titled Predicted Ejecta Dynamics and Observability of the 2026 Falcon 9 Upper Stage Lunar Impact
led by William Jo, a graduate research assistant at the University of Texas at Austin. Using a specialized shock-physics hydrocode, the research team modeled how a hollow, spacecraft-like body will behave compared to solid natural impactors like asteroids or comets.
“We predict the debris plume from the Aug. 5 impact will have the central ejecta spike reaching roughly 75 kilometers to 100 kilometers altitude,”
William Jo, graduate research assistant at University of Texas at Austin, via Inside Outer Space
The modeling indicates that the resulting crater will measure between 20 and 30 meters across, surrounded by a continuous ejecta blanket spanning roughly 70 meters in diameter. The curtain of debris is expected to reach 15 to 20 kilometers wide, spreading 183 kilometers laterally near the sunlit limb of the Moon, with resolved particles traveling up to nearly 1,000 kilometers from the impact point.
Observing the Event from Earth and Space
Because the collision is scheduled for daytime on August 5 at roughly 06:35 UTC, observing the initial sub-second flash will present challenges. Unlike faster natural meteoroids that generate bright supersonic shockwaves in bedrock, slow space debris traveling at roughly 2 kilometers per second produces diminished visual flashes when striking lunar regolith as noted in the researchers’ findings.
However, the dust plume offers a better target for suitably equipped telescopes. Calculations suggest the plume should be several orders of magnitude brighter than the dark-sky background for the initial minutes after impact against the dark sky near the lunar edge.
Swiss space situational awareness firm s2A systems provided tracking visualizations confirming the object, designated 2025-010D, is actively tumbling as it approaches its terminal intersection with the Moon.
Regulatory Voids and the Future of Lunar Stewardship
Beyond the scientific utility of calibrating impact models against a controlled, human-made collision, the event highlights growing concerns over lunar environmental management.
With commercial enterprises and national space agencies planning long-term research stations, resource prospecting, and cargo delivery networks, unmanaged debris and uncontrolled impacts threaten future infrastructure, sensitive scientific instruments, and historical heritage sites such as the Apollo landing areas.
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