Francesca Hong Leads Wisconsin Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Polls

A Marquette Law School poll released July 22 showed Hong at 26 percent, with 54 percent of registered Democrats holding a favorable view of democratic socialists, according to the Prospect. Her campaign has outpaced former lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes and re-entering candidate David Crowley, who entered the race on July 18 with the endorsement of outgoing Gov. Tony Evers.

Hong’s Steady Campaign and Establishment Frustration

Hong, who represents Madison’s deep-blue district, has run a disciplined campaign since her 2020 election, drawing large crowds and national attention. Her focus on working-class issues and transformative change has resonated with voters, even as establishment Democrats have struggled to unify behind a single candidate. Voters are telling us that they are ready for a new type of leadership, Hong said, according to the Prospect. Despite Evers’s endorsement of Crowley, the former lieutenant governor remains in third place, trailing Hong by 21 points in an internal poll.

The Democratic establishment’s efforts to counter Hong have been fragmented. After former Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez dropped out of the race in late June amid a campaign finance scandal, the party tried to consolidate around her, but the move collapsed when Rodriguez herself exited. Crowley’s re-entry, backed by Evers, has not shifted the dynamic, with Barnes and Crowley splitting the anti-Hong vote.

Republican Strategy and the Path to the General Election

The Republican Governors Association has spent $2.2 million on “attack ads” targeting Hong, viewing her as a potential weak general-election opponent for U.S. Tiffany, who has framed the race as a choice between “common sense” and “crazy,” has faced little opposition in his primary. This November, the choice is common sense or crazy, Tiffany posted on social media, citing Hong’s calls to defund the police and her support for a state-owned bank to fund free healthcare and childcare.

Hong’s campaign has not shied away from her progressive stance, arguing that her policies reflect the will of Wisconsin voters. Her position aligns with a broader trend of democratic socialist victories in urban areas, though her challenge in a swing state like Wisconsin remains untested.

Historical Context and the Future of the Race

Wisconsin’s political landscape has long been a battleground for progressive and establishment forces. In 1910, Milwaukee elected the first socialist to Congress, and socialist candidates have periodically gained traction in the state. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, the most prominent democratic socialist, won all but one county in Wisconsin during the 2016 Democratic primary. Hong, the first Asian American elected to the state Assembly in 2020, is part of a socialist caucus revived in 2023, which includes four members, per the Prospect.

Longtime strategist Joe Zepecki, who is not working with any of the Democratic candidates, called Barnes the “favorite” in the race, citing his name recognition and experience. I’ve been around longer than anybody fighting these fights, Barnes said, according to the Prospect. However, Hong’s lead in polls and her ability to draw crowds suggest her momentum is hard to reverse.

The outcome of the Aug. 11 primary will determine the Democratic Party’s path to regaining control of Wisconsin’s state government, a goal they have not achieved since 2010. With the governor’s race central to broader legislative ambitions, including Medicaid expansion, the stakes are high for both parties. As the race nears its conclusion, the question remains: can the establishment coalesce around a candidate, or will Hong’s rise redefine Wisconsin’s political future?