Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged by as much as 90%, forcing vessels to reroute along Africa’s coastline as tanker traffic shifts away from high-risk corridors.
- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has declined by up to 90%.
- Rystad Energy estimates that repairs to Gulf energy infrastructure could cost up to $58 billion.
- Iraq is advancing plans to revive a pipeline to Saudi Arabia with a capacity exceeding 1.6 million barrels per day.
Iraq Revives Pipeline Amid Energy Infrastructure Damage
Iraq is advancing plans to restart a long-idle pipeline linking its southern oil hub in Zubair to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu. With a capacity of more than 1.6 million barrels per day, the pipeline would allow crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and flow directly to global markets.
The move reflects a broader effort across the Gulf to diversify export routes and reduce exposure to geopolitical risks. This urgency is highlighted by the scale of recent damage to regional energy infrastructure.
Rystad Energy estimates that repairs could cost up to $58 billion. Additionally, the International Energy Agency reported that more than 80 oil and gas facilities have been affected by recent attacks, with some requiring years to fully restore.
Red Sea and Horn of Africa Become Critical Arteries
As trade flows shift, the Red Sea is emerging as a critical artery for global energy trade, strengthening the strategic positions of Egypt, Sudan, and Djibouti. Egypt remains central via the Suez Canal, while Djibouti is expanding its role as a regional logistics and transit point.
Alternative routes are gaining traction to avoid congestion. Egypt’s SUMED pipeline allows crude to bypass the Suez Canal, while Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline connects Gulf oil directly to Red Sea export terminals.
The Gulf of Aden is also gaining prominence as a key transit corridor linking the Indian Ocean to Europe. Ports along this route, including Berbera in Somaliland, are being developed with Gulf backing to meet rising demand.
Security Risks Drive Cape of Good Hope Rerouting
Heightened risks have forced major shipping operators, including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM, to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. Even military assets have shifted, with the USS George H.W. Bush recently bypassing the Red Sea on its way to the Middle East.
Ongoing attacks by the Houthi movement continue to pose security challenges along the corridor. This has prompted the United States to expand its military presence, while Israel has shown interest in establishing military bases to support regional operations.
West Africa Emerges as Atlantic Alternative
West Africa is positioning itself as a safer, Atlantic-facing option for global trade. Togo is promoting the Port of Lomé as a strategic logistics hub for Euro-Asian shipping lines seeking to avoid dangers in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
Edem Kokou Tengue, Togo’s Minister Delegate for Maritime Economy, stated that the Port of Lomé now offers a viable alternative for goods destined for Asia or the rest of the African continent.
Further strengthening this corridor is a proposed €20 billion subsea tunnel between Spain and Morocco, which is expected to reinforce trade links between Europe and Africa as global trade maps are reconfigured.
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