Belarus & Russia: Nuclear Missile Deployed – Oreshnik Threat

Belarus is now hosting Russia’s latest nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system, according to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, as discussions to end the war in Ukraine reach a critical point.

Oreshnik Missile System Deployed to Belarus

Lukashenko stated on Thursday that the Oreshnik, an intermediate range ballistic missile system, arrived in the country on Wednesday and is entering combat duty. He did not disclose the number of missiles deployed or provide further details.

Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed Wednesday that the Oreshnik would be operational this month, warning that Moscow would seek to expand its gains in Ukraine if Kyiv and its Western allies reject Kremlin demands during peace negotiations.

The United States has been engaged in a diplomatic effort to resolve the nearly four-year conflict following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but faces conflicting demands from both Moscow and Kyiv.

Russia has previously stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which it utilized as a launchpad for the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Lukashenko has previously indicated that Belarus possesses several dozen Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

A conventionally armed version of the Oreshnik – Russian for hazelnut tree – was first tested in November 2024 against a Ukrainian factory. Putin has asserted that the missile is impossible to intercept and has threatened the West with its potential use against allies of Kyiv who provide longer-range missiles for strikes inside Russia.

Putin has claimed the Oreshnik’s multiple warheads travel at speeds up to Mach 10 and are uninterceptable, suggesting that a conventional strike with several of these missiles could be as devastating as a nuclear attack. Russian state media reported the missile could reach a Polish air base in 11 minutes and NATO headquarters in Brussels in 17 minutes. It is currently impossible to determine whether the missile carries a nuclear or conventional warhead before impact.

Intermediate-range missiles have a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,400 miles). Weapons of this type were prohibited under a treaty from the Soviet era, which both Washington and Moscow abandoned in 2019.

Both Putin and Lukashenko have stated the Oreshnik will be deployed to Ukraine before the end of the year. During a security pact signing in December 2024, Putin indicated that while Russia controls the Oreshniks, Minsk would be responsible for selecting targets. He also noted that the missiles could carry a heavier payload if used against targets closer to Belarus.

In 2024, the Kremlin revised its nuclear doctrine to state that any conventional attack on Russia supported by a nuclear power would be considered a joint attack. This threat appears aimed at deterring the West from enabling Ukraine to strike Russia with longer-range weapons and potentially lowers the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons.

The revised doctrine also extends the Russian nuclear umbrella to include Belarus.

Lukashenko has governed Belarus with an authoritarian hand for over three decades, and his government has faced repeated Western sanctions due to its human rights record and its support of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Despite maintaining close ties with Moscow, Lukashenko has also sought improved relations with the U.S. On Saturday, he released 123 political prisoners, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, in exchange for the lifting of U.S. sanctions against the Belarusian potash industries, a significant source of export revenue.