Cambodia-Thailand Conflict: China’s Ceasefire Role

China has stepped into a diplomatic role in mediating the border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand, hosting talks between the countries’ top diplomats after a newly brokered ceasefire. Beijing appears to be positioning its approach as a more measured alternative to previous U.S. efforts to resolve the dispute.

China Mediates Thailand-Cambodia Ceasefire

For months, China had maintained a lower profile as tensions escalated between Cambodia and Thailand, stating it had “its own way” of mediating the conflict. However, on Dec. 29, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted his Cambodian and Thai counterparts for trilateral talks following a recent ceasefire agreement.

During a bilateral meeting with his Thai counterpart Sihasak Phuangketkeow on Dec. 28, Wang emphasized that China’s diplomatic efforts “never impose on others or overstep its bounds.” The state-run Global Times echoed this sentiment, stating that China’s approach differs from Western mediation by avoiding a “condescending approach” or seeking “geopolitical advantages.”

These remarks were interpreted as a critique of the United States’ attempts to de-escalate the conflict. In July, then-U.S. President Donald Trump threatened punitive tariffs on both Cambodia and Thailand as part of ongoing trade negotiations. While an initial ceasefire was achieved on July 28, analysts suggest it failed to address underlying issues.

Sihasak later noted that a subsequent joint declaration expanding on the July ceasefire had been “rushed,” as the U.S. aimed to have it signed during the ASEAN summit in Malaysia on Oct. 26. “Sometimes, you know, we cannot always operate on a fixed timeframe,” he said.

Thailand suspended the U.S.-brokered peace deal in November, alleging that Cambodia had laid new landmines, resulting in injuries to 11 Thai soldiers, including one on Dec. 29. Renewed fighting erupted after both sides accused each other of initiating gunfire, leading to Thai air strikes into Cambodia on Dec. 8, before another ceasefire was agreed upon on Dec. 27.

China has significant strategic and economic interests in a lasting ceasefire, including protecting investments and economic corridors in both countries and preventing regional instability, particularly given ongoing issues in Myanmar and the South China Sea.

Beijing’s involvement also signals a growing ambition to increase its influence in Southeast Asia and beyond, demonstrated by its role in brokering a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023 and its support for the Myanmar junta.

The recent meeting in Yunnan resulted in a five-part roadmap to solidify the ceasefire and stabilize relations, with China pledging continued involvement. Priorities include consolidating the ceasefire, with China assisting with landmine removal and supporting the ASEAN Observer Team.

According to Associate Professor Ma Bo of Nanjing University, China’s engagement has been “deliberately low-profile,” preferring to operate in the background when other actors take the lead. He contrasted the U.S. approach, which prioritizes speed and pressure, with China’s emphasis on process, dialogue, and post-crisis stabilization.

However, the situation remains fluid, with distrust between the two sides running deep. Just hours after the Yunnan summit, Thailand’s army reported that Cambodia had flown over 250 drones over Thai border areas on Dec. 28, considering it a ceasefire violation and reconsidering the release of 18 Cambodian soldiers held since July.

The Cambodian Defence Ministry reported calm along the border since the ceasefire took effect on Dec. 27. Political analyst Virak Ou suggested that China’s decision to intervene was likely influenced by Thailand’s military superiority and the strategic gains it had made.

Lye Liang Fook, a China expert at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, noted that China’s intervention provides both sides with a face-saving way to de-escalate the situation, particularly beneficial for Cambodia given its weaker military position.