Escalating geopolitical tensions in Asia, fueled by the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, disputes over Taiwan, and Japan’s military expansion, are creating a period of “new cold peace” characterized by structural suspicion and a focus on monitoring Chinese naval operations.
Regional Power Dynamics
Asia is experiencing a renewed global power struggle driven by tensions surrounding Taiwan, Japan’s remilitarization, and the United States’ strategic focus on the Indo-Pacific. These developments reflect anxieties related to a shifting global power balance rather than regional insecurity, with underlying imperial instincts to control and contain emerging forces.
The One-China Principle
The international understanding regarding China’s representation was established in 1971 with United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758, recognizing the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate representative of China. This resolution, representing a geopolitical settlement, ended decades of diplomatic ambiguity and affirmed Taiwan was not recognized as a separate sovereign entity. Over 180 countries currently maintain diplomatic relations with the PRC based on this one-China principle.
China’s Military Modernization
Since late 2025 and early 2026, China has demonstrated increasing assertiveness, driven by the “One China” principle, historical narratives, and rapid military modernization. Under President Xi Jinping, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is evolving into a world-class force focused on national rejuvenation, power projection, and asserting territorial claims, particularly concerning Taiwan. PLA incursions have increased by 200% between 2020 and 2024, with a goal of achieving the capability to seize or coerce Taiwan by 2027.
Japan’s Shifting Posture
Japan is moving away from its post-World War II pacifist stance towards becoming a “normal” military power. Since the mid-2000s, and accelerating under Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Sanae Takaichi, Japan has revised national security documents to prioritize “counterstrike capabilities” and significantly increase its defense budget. China is now officially framed by Japan as an “unprecedented strategic challenge” and a “pressing security concern,” echoing historical regional rivalries.
Historical Context and Imperial Legacy
The Taiwan question is rooted in a history of imperial intrusion, with Taiwan’s separation from the mainland stemming from Japanese colonialism and the aftermath of the Chinese civil war. China views sovereignty as an existential issue, shaped by its history of foreign coercion and “humiliation.” Western powers, once responsible for carving China into concessions, now present themselves as guardians of its periphery.
Concerns over Japan’s Re-armament
Japan’s increasing military assertiveness is viewed with concern, given its history of imperial aggression and colonial rule in Asia. Its post-war pacifist constitution was intended as a safeguard for the region. The repurposing of advanced technology for military expansion, coupled with a downplaying of historical responsibility, is seen as a step backward.
U.S. Response and Perceived Decline
The intensification of the Taiwan issue is also linked to the United States’ response to China’s rise. For the first time since World War II, the U.S. faces a power it cannot easily dominate. China’s economic and technological advancements, including lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty and becoming the primary trading partner for most of the world, are reshaping the global landscape. Unable to reverse this trend economically, the U.S. is increasing militarization and building alliances, potentially escalating tensions in the region.
The Risks of Militarization
Military build-ups are not seen as a path to stability, drawing on historical lessons that arms races create insecurity. A future for Asia is envisioned through regional autonomy, economic cooperation, and diplomatic maturity, rather than through NATO-style blocs or Cold War revivalism. Challenging the one-China principle is considered a provocation that destabilizes international settlements and risks conflict.
Asia stands at a crossroads, with a choice between allowing external powers to dictate its future through force or asserting a future based on peace, legality, and sovereignty. The region’s destiny lies in cooperation, trade, and shared development, not in becoming a theatre for foreign power projection.
Dr. Ranjan Solomon has worked in social justice movements since he was 19 years of age. After an accumulated period of 58 years working with oppressed and marginalized groups locally, nationally, and internationally, he has now turned a researcher-freelance writer focussed on questions of global and local/national justice. Since the First Intifada in 1987, Ranjan Solomon has stayed in close solidarity with the Palestinian struggle for freedom from Israeli occupation, and the cruel apartheid system. He has initiated solidarity groups in India, Afro-Asia-Pacific alliance, and at the global level. Ranjan Solomon can be contacted at [email protected]
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