The Shadow War Evolves: How Covert Operations in Latin America are Redefining Geopolitical Risk

Over the past century, the United States has engaged in over 70 covert operations globally, with Latin America bearing a disproportionate burden – roughly 40% of those interventions. This historical pattern, recently reignited by former President Trump’s authorization for CIA operations in Venezuela, isn’t simply a relic of the Cold War. It’s a harbinger of a new era of asymmetrical conflict, where influence operations and proxy warfare are increasingly favored over direct military intervention. This shift demands a reassessment of geopolitical risk, not just for Latin American nations, but for global stability.

The Shifting Landscape of Covert Action

Recent reports from BBC, El País, CNN en Español, DW, and La Tercera highlight a growing unease across Latin America regarding perceived US interference. While the CIA’s influence is acknowledged – even by those critical of it – the narrative isn’t one of absolute control. Instead, it’s a complex web of support for opposition groups, disinformation campaigns, and attempts to destabilize regimes deemed unfavorable to US interests. The key difference now is the subtlety. Gone are the days of blatant coups; today’s tactics are designed to erode legitimacy from within, creating conditions for internal collapse or regime change.

Venezuela: A Case Study in Modern Interference

The current situation in Venezuela, with Maduro’s staunch rejection of any US-backed “regime change” and Petro’s cautious criticism of Washington, exemplifies this new dynamic. Trump’s authorization, while publicly condemned, signals a willingness to utilize covert channels to influence the political landscape. However, the fragmented opposition and Maduro’s continued grip on power demonstrate the limitations of such interventions. The risk isn’t necessarily a successful coup, but rather the prolonged destabilization of a strategically important nation, creating a humanitarian crisis and regional instability.

Beyond Venezuela: A Regional Trend

The concerns extend beyond Venezuela. Historically, countries like Chile, Guatemala, and Argentina have experienced the direct consequences of US covert operations. Today, similar anxieties are surfacing in nations facing political polarization and economic hardship. The rise of leftist governments in Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico has further heightened tensions, as these administrations often pursue policies that diverge from traditional US interests. This divergence isn’t necessarily a threat, but it’s perceived as such by some within the US foreign policy establishment, potentially triggering further covert activity.

The Rise of Non-State Actors and Information Warfare

The future of covert operations in Latin America won’t solely be defined by state-sponsored actions. We’re witnessing the increasing involvement of non-state actors – private security firms, mercenary groups, and even criminal organizations – often operating with varying degrees of deniability. Furthermore, information warfare is becoming a central component of these operations. Disinformation campaigns, spread through social media and online platforms, are designed to manipulate public opinion, sow discord, and undermine trust in democratic institutions.

This trend is particularly concerning given the region’s high levels of social media penetration and the vulnerability of its populations to misinformation. The ability to control the narrative, rather than control territory, is becoming the primary objective.

Implications for Businesses and Investors

The escalating geopolitical risk in Latin America has significant implications for businesses and investors. Political instability, policy uncertainty, and the potential for social unrest can disrupt supply chains, damage infrastructure, and erode investor confidence. Companies operating in the region need to conduct thorough risk assessments, diversify their investments, and develop contingency plans to mitigate potential disruptions. Ignoring these risks is no longer an option.

The Role of China and Russia

The US isn’t the only external actor vying for influence in Latin America. China’s growing economic presence and Russia’s increasing political engagement are creating a multi-polar landscape. This competition for influence further complicates the situation, potentially leading to proxy conflicts and increased instability. Businesses need to understand these dynamics and assess how they might impact their operations.

Preparing for a New Era of Covert Conflict

The future of US-Latin American relations will be shaped by the evolving nature of covert operations. A return to the overt interventions of the Cold War is unlikely, but the risk of destabilization and interference remains high. Latin American nations need to strengthen their democratic institutions, promote transparency, and invest in cybersecurity to protect themselves from external manipulation. Businesses need to adopt a proactive risk management approach, and investors need to be prepared for a volatile and uncertain environment. The shadow war is evolving, and understanding its dynamics is crucial for navigating the challenges ahead.

What are your predictions for the future of US-Latin American relations? Share your insights in the comments below!