Amidst the gardens of Havana’s diplomatic quarter, Siboney, ambassadors from countries traditionally allied with the United States are expressing frustration with Washington’s efforts to unseat Cuba’s government, while simultaneously preparing for potential drawdowns of their missions. Cuba is facing a deepening crisis, compounded by a four-year economic slump, hyper-inflation, and the emigration of nearly 20% of its population, leaving the 67-year-old communist government at its weakest point.
US Policy and Diplomatic Concerns
Following a military operation by the US against Venezuela in January, the US administration is actively pursuing regime change in Cuba. More than five top-level officials from different countries have voiced complaints that the US charge d’affaires, Mike Hammer, has not provided a detailed plan beyond attempting to cripple the island’s economy by cutting off oil supplies. One official stated, “There’s talk of human rights, and that this is the year Cuba changes – but little talk of what happens afterwards.”
Rumored discussions between the Cuban government, represented by Gen Alejandro Castro Espín, son of former president Raúl Castro, and US officials in Mexico offer a potential path to a deal, but progress remains elusive. Some observers point to comments made by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Munich, suggesting a willingness to consider alternatives to regime change, such as increasing “political freedom” and “economic freedom” for the Cuban people.
Humanitarian Impact and Fuel Shortages
Diplomats are bracing for a strategy of economic pressure intended to incite unrest and allow for US intervention. “We’re trying to keep a cool head,” said one ambassador, while another added, “Embassies are built on planning for the unexpected – hopefully before it becomes expected.”
The lack of fuel is hindering relief efforts by the UN World Food Programme following last year’s Hurricane Melissa. The organization is now preparing for a significantly larger crisis, with the availability of fresh produce in cities already impacted. “We’re already seeing the impact in the availability of fresh produce in the cities,” said Étienne Labande, the WFP’s country director.
Concerns are mounting over the rapid deterioration of essential services – electricity, water, and food transportation – due to the fuel shortage. Diplomats estimate that extreme suffering could occur within weeks, with rural areas like Viñales potentially faring better than cities.
Economic Pressure and International Response
Cuba’s crisis was exacerbated by an executive order signed by Donald Trump in January imposing tariffs on countries supplying Cuba with oil. Despite objections from China and Russia, the threat has proven effective. Even Mexico, which had become Cuba’s largest oil supplier, has halted tankers, although President Claudia Sheinbaum warned of a humanitarian disaster and sent 800 tons of aid, stating, “No one can ignore the situation that the Cuban people are currently experiencing because of the sanctions that the United States is imposing in a very unfair manner.”
At a US residence event on January 28, Hammer referenced the 68-year US embargo, telling guests, “The Cubans have complained for years about ‘the blockade’, but now there is going to be a real blockade.” He has since begun a tour of eastern Cuba distributing US aid, encountering protests from government-backed groups. He is now believed to be heading to Rome for discussions with the Vatican.
An embassy spokesperson stated they regularly meet with diplomatic colleagues but declined to discuss the details of those meetings.
Travel Disruptions and Daily Life
The impact of the oil blockade has been swift. All three airlines flying tourists into Cuba from Canada suspended their services this week due to a lack of aviation fuel, followed by two Russian airlines. All five carriers have begun repatriating travellers. Approximately three-quarters of a million Canadians visited Cuba in 2025, making them the largest group of tourists, followed by Russians and Cuban expatriates. The UK Foreign Office has adjusted its travel advice to recommend only essential travel to the island.
As the economic pressure mounts, Cubans are preparing for life without fuel. “It is starting to feel like the 1962 missile crisis,” said one resident. “The sun was shining then too, and people went about their business, under a cloud of anxiety.”
The Cuban government has already closed universities, secondary schools, and non-essential state offices and reduced public transport to conserve resources.
Adrian Rodriguez Suárez, a 22-year-old nuclear physics student at Havana University, has been told to return home to Holguín to continue his studies remotely. “Many are using their own means to get home,” he said, expressing concern about electricity availability in his province.
Citizens are also turning to social media to express their concerns, with one Facebook user questioning the fate of a planned March wedding. Others are offering assistance, such as free transport for patients requiring medical treatment.
Entrepreneurs are adapting to the situation, with one man in Havana manufacturing wood-burning stoves for cooking, selling for $8 (single burner) or $15 (double burner). A resident of Sancti Spíritus joked about potentially bequeathing a charcoal stove to her daughter as her only inheritance.
Diplomats are continuing to plan for potential evacuation. “What is the point of us being here if we can’t work?” asked one. “We’re prepared, vigilant, and hoping common sense keeps winning a few rounds,” said another.
In Havana, tourist hotspots are becoming quieter. Yarini, a popular rooftop bar, was sparsely populated on a recent weekday night, with the few patrons consisting of war correspondents covering the potential fall of one of the world’s last communist states.
Additional reporting by Eileen Sosin
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