Cuba Flights Halted: Fuel Shortage & US Sanctions Impact

Cuba’s communist-run government is facing its most significant challenge since the collapse of the Soviet Union, as U.S. pressure mounts following a military operation in Venezuela and subsequent economic sanctions. The island nation is grappling with a worsening economic crisis, including fuel shortages and rationing, prompting warnings of a potential humanitarian “collapse.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has increased pressure on Cuba since the Jan. 3 military operation to seize Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a long-time ally of Cuba’s government. Cuba reported that 32 of its citizens were killed in the attack.

Trump has effectively cut Cuba off from Venezuelan oil, labeled its government “an unusual and extraordinary threat” and pledged to impose tariffs on countries that continue to supply it with oil. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel responded, stating, “Surrender is not an option,” while also expressing willingness to hold talks with Washington without preconditions.

The country has warned that international airlines will no longer be able to refuel there due to fuel shortages. Cuba has implemented rationing measures to protect essential services and limit fuel supplies for key sectors, including restrictions on fuel sales, closures of some tourist establishments, shortened school days, and a four-day work week for state-owned companies.

“The current situation in Cuba is as serious as it has been since the 1990s, when Cuba suddenly had to survive without the support of the Eastern Bloc,” said Par Kumaraswami, professor of Latin American Studies at the U.K.’s University of Nottingham.

Trump’s tariff threats have deterred many nations from continuing trade with Cuba, according to Kumaraswami. Mexico has sent humanitarian aid but suspended oil shipments to preserve its relationship with Havana while avoiding the U.S. tariffs. Kumaraswami noted “of course frustration with the difficulties of daily life,” but also that “many Cubans are resolved to resist threats to their national sovereignty and a new wave of patriotism has emerged.”

Air Canada subsequently canceled all flights to Cuba amid the fuel shortage, though the airline said Monday it would bring approximately 3,000 customers already in the country home in the coming days. Tourism is a significant revenue source for Cuba’s government and a popular winter destination for Canadian tourists.

Unlike previous crises, Cuba lacks foreign partners capable of providing substantial assistance, according to Robert Munks, head of Americas research at Verisk Maplecroft. The U.S. has also limited Cuba’s access to hard currency and pressured Nicaragua to end visa-free travel for Cubans.

Munks stated that the government’s plan to increase the use of renewable energy sources is likely “too little, too late.” He added that outbreaks of civil unrest are possible, given the island’s domestic energy production shortfall. “An accelerating collapse of basic services will put the regime under extreme pressure to find a negotiated solution,” Munks said.

He added that “the odds are shortening” on Díaz-Canel being forced from power in the months ahead in a Maduro-style managed transition, but believes the regime will likely “try to muddle through” until the U.S. midterm elections in November.

Cuba’s dwindling oil supplies prompted the United Nations to warn of a possible humanitarian “collapse” last week. “The Secretary-General is extremely concerned about the humanitarian situation in Cuba, which will worsen, and if not collapse, if its oil needs go unmet,” said UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric.

Cuba’s emergency measures represent a crucial test for the BRICS bloc of developing nations, according to Helen Yaffe, a Cuba expert and professor of Latin American political economy at the University of Glasgow, Scotland. “This is probably the most important test now for BRICS … If BRICS cannot protect, defend and rally around a member, then what is it worth?” Yaffe said.

Cuba acquired “partner country” status within the BRICS group in January of last year, strengthening ties with Brazil, Russia, and China. Each of these countries has offered support to Cuba in recent days.

A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry stated Tuesday that Beijing “stands firmly against the inhumane actions that deprive the Cuban people of their right to subsistence and development.” They added that China would, “as always,” seek to provide assistance to Cuba. Russia described Havana’s fuel situation as “truly critical” and criticized U.S. attempts to further pressure the country.

“The Cuban government is not going to submit,” Yaffe said. “The fact is, [the U.S. is] going to keep squeezing and the Cubans are going to keep resisting and there’s going to be a lot of unnecessary suffering.” She added: “I’m a historian and it’s very vainglorious for historians to try and predict the future but we can look at trends — and I can guarantee you that we were here before in the early 1990s where nobody thought Cuba would pull together and pull through — and they did.”