Cuban Economists Urge Political Reform to Fix Economic Crisis

Cuban Economists Propose Comprehensive Reform Plan

Addressing Structural Failures and Energy Crisis

A primary focus of the reform plan is the energy sector. With the capital experiencing daily blackouts exceeding 20 hours and some provinces facing outages lasting up to three days, the economists identify energy instability as a major constraint on recovery.

A Three-Year Roadmap for Recovery

• Stabilization: An initial phase focused on macroeconomic stabilization and urgent measures to support the most vulnerable segments of the population.
• Recovery: A middle phase aimed at restoring institutional and productive capacities.
• Development: A final phase centering on a long-term strategy for sustainable growth.

The authors explicitly reject the notion that Cuba should emulate the liberalization models of China or Vietnam, arguing that without political accountability and citizen control, economic reforms remain subject to the discretion of the state. They define democracy as an essential value that should not be sacrificed for economic performance.

Role of the Private Sector and Diaspora

The economists acknowledge that the feasibility of their roadmap rests on several critical conditions, including substantive negotiations between Havana and Washington to alleviate sanctions and substantial international political and financial support. While the government of Cuba introduced its own package of 176 reforms in June, the authors stated their program does not specifically analyze or critique that government plan, focusing instead on their own comprehensive framework for institutional and economic change.