DEA Assessment Shows Military Strikes Fail to Curb Cocaine Flow

When Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth launched Operation Southern Spear in November 2025, the campaign set out to target drug cartels operating in waters off South and Central America. Operating under the subordinate command of U.S. Southern Command, the secretive mission relied on deadly military strikes against individuals suspected of smuggling narcotics by sea. But nearly 11 months into the campaign, an internal assessment by the Drug Enforcement Administration, a closed-door congressional briefing, and interviews with current and former officials paint a starkly different picture of its efficacy.

Contradicting White House Claims on Maritime Drug Trafficking

President Donald Trump has asserted publicly rawstory.com that the military campaign has slashed maritime drug trafficking by 97 percent to 98 percent. However, the previously undisclosed DEA assessment undercuts those claims entirely, revealing that cocaine’s price and purity in the United States have remained essentially unchanged since the campaign began.

Pentagon officials confirmed this reality during a closed-door briefing with the Senate Armed Services Committee, admitting that the strikes had not reduced the purity of cocaine seized domestically. White House officials, nonetheless, continue to defend the lethal operations.

Kelly added that President Trump is using every tool at his disposal to save lives from the scourge of illicit narcotics, and any suggestion that these efforts have not been effective are laughable.

How Cartels Adapted to Operation Southern Spear

Rather than deterring criminal syndicates, the intense pressure has forced cartels to rewrite their logistics playbooks. DEA analysts found that smugglers quickly adapted to the military campaign, causing early disruptions to dissolve within months as prices and availability returned to normal.

Instead of relying on high-speed go-fast boats in international waters—the primary targets of the U.S. strikes—traffickers shifted toward larger vessels hugging the coastline. Criminal organizations have also leaned more heavily on clandestine aircraft departing from the Colombia-Venezuela border and flying to Guyana and Suriname, alongside bribing officials for advance warning of U.S. ship movements.

The official added that they always find the weak spots and exploit them. Supply-chain expert Nicholas Magliocca noted that sea smuggling frequently takes place through cargo containers rather than the targeted boats, describing the campaign as a demonstrative step rather than a systemic fix.

“These are only low-level employees, and by killing them, the U.S. does not destroy the criminal organizations that supply these illegal drugs.”

Nicholas Magliocca, supply-chain expert

Broader Impacts on Investigations and Regional Supply

Beyond failing to curb supply, the military strategy may be actively damaging domestic investigative capacities. Informants who traditionally fed intelligence to law enforcement agencies are reportedly being pulled from the field out of fear they could be killed in a strike.

Meanwhile, the wider drug landscape remains severe. A United Nations report highlighted that global cocaine production has surged to record highs over the past decade. While opioid-related fatalities declined, cocaine contributed to about 20,000 overdose deaths in 2025, while fentanyl claimed more than 38,000 lives.

Customs and Border Protection data shows thousands of pounds of cocaine intercepted at borders monthly, and the DEA reported seizures of nearly 180,000 pounds during the first half of 2026. However, a senior Colombian security official observed that the boat strikes have merely pushed more cocaine through legitimate ports and onto stockpiling ships.

The Current Operational Status

The future trajectory of the campaign remains clouded by an abrupt operational pause. The last recorded strike occurred on June 21, and it remains unclear why operations were suspended. The hiatus leaves officials evaluating the long-term viability of a campaign that unfolded alongside major political shifts, including the predawn raid and arrest of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, who now awaits trial in Brooklyn on charges of drug trafficking, money laundering, and corruption.

Law enforcement and Department of Homeland Security officials maintain that assessing the campaign requires patience. It’s hard to measure this so quickly, one DHS official told CNN, while another noted that shifting cartel routes likely account for temporary dips in Coast Guard seizures. Independent analysts like Sebastian Cutrona remain skeptical, stating simply: I do not see the U.S. touching the root of the problem.