EU Trust Grows in Southeast Asia: New Gains, Old Challenges

The European Union has strengthened its position in Southeast Asia, emerging as the region’s most preferred “third party” to balance the rivalry between the United States and China, according to a recent regional survey.

EU Viewed as Predictable Strategic Partner

The latest State of Southeast Asia survey, conducted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, indicates that confidence in the EU is growing, largely driven by its image as a stabilizing, non-coercive actor associated with international law and climate leadership.

Respondents increasingly value the EU as a predictable partner amid uncertainty regarding US leadership. However, researchers noted a remaining gap between the EU’s reputation and its real-world impact, citing doubts about the bloc’s internal unity and ability to act decisively globally.

Indonesia stands as a regional exception, being the only ASEAN country where distrust of the EU outweighed trust over the past year. Despite this, 40.7% of Indonesian respondents still view the EU as a useful hedge against the US-China rivalry.

Economic Ties and Trade Ambitions

The EU currently maintains free trade agreements with Singapore and Vietnam and recently concluded negotiations for a major deal with Indonesia. Brussels is now seeking to finalize similar agreements with Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines.

These bilateral deals are viewed as building blocks toward an eventual region-to-region trade agreement with ASEAN. While the EU is seen as a champion of the global free trade agenda by 19.2% of respondents, it currently ranks behind both China and ASEAN itself in that category.

Geopolitical Pressures and Regional Gaps

Analysts suggest the shift toward the EU is strategic rather than a result of increased European hard power. The region is diversifying ties as confidence in US leadership weakens and concerns over China’s growing influence persist.

Specifically, the survey identified US leadership under President Donald Trump as a top geopolitical concern. His administration’s unilateral and unpredictable foreign policy has encouraged Southeast Asian nations to seek more dependable alternatives.

Despite the positive trends, the EU faces criticism for its perceived lack of engagement. The EU-ASEAN Business Council noted the EU’s absence from key ministerial meetings, such as a January gathering of digital ministers in Vietnam, while the US, China, and Russia were present.

As ASEAN and the EU prepare to mark the 50th anniversary of their relations next year, critics argue Brussels must increase senior-level involvement and demonstrate a more public commitment to the relationship to move beyond rhetoric.