Europe’s 90s Dream: Estonia Warns of a Changed Future

Estonia’s second-most senior foreign ministry official has warned that Europe’s long-held belief that history ended in the 1990s is now a dangerous naiveté, as the war in Ukraine reshapes the international order and exposes the cost of ignoring hard power.

Russia’s Endurance and a War Economy

Jonatan Vseviov, the secretary-general of Estonia’s foreign ministry, told the Estonian weekly Maaleht that the war “will most certainly change the world.” He questioned whether Europeans have “enough sharpness to speak ourselves into the rooms where Europe’s fate is being decided.”

Vseviov stated that Russia’s endurance is not accidental, explaining that the Kremlin has rebuilt the state around war. He said their economy has been reshaped into a war economy, underpinned by energy exports – “simplistically, oil and gas” – and reserves accumulated before the full-scale invasion. Moscow is “making enormous efforts” to keep the war going, despite the challenges.

Putin’s Domestic Calculations

Vseviov suggested Russia’s capacity for war is linked to a political calculation at home. President Putin, he said, is working to maintain the impression that everyday life continues, treating the invasion as an “operation” rather than a national mobilization. This reluctance to draw manpower from major cities and “elite” social groups, Vseviov argued, reveals a regime that fears the loyalty of its own foundations.

Undermining Putin’s Arguments

From Estonia’s perspective, this fear presents an opportunity. Western policy should be designed to undermine Putin’s “base arguments,” particularly the claim that democracies are collapsing and leaders are transient. Vseviov pointed to Putin’s recent insult directed at European leaders – calling them “piglets” – as an expression of the idea that the West is too decadent and unstable for a long confrontation.

The response, he argued, is to view democratic change as a strength, noting that governments rotate while institutions endure. Courts continue to prosecute according to law, and international justice proceeds at its own pace. Russia’s expectation that “everything will be forgotten” and it will return to Europe’s negotiating tables to redraw borders is, he said, a fantasy.

War Crimes and Accountability

Vseviov was unambiguous on war crimes, stating that time should not be confused with amnesty. He argued that these crimes must remain on the record “no matter how long it takes,” and highlighted the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Putin as something that infuriates the Kremlin because it hinders normalization. “You cannot sit at the negotiating table when you are persona non grata in Europe,” he noted, suggesting Moscow’s interest in immunity clauses in potential peace deals is central to its motives.

Hijacking Western Terminology

Vseviov believes Russia is hijacking Western terminology, a tactic he says is shifting the battlefield of language. He cited the Soviet-era use of “people’s democracies” for authoritarian states and the current framing of aggression as peace. He insisted on stating the simple truth: if Russia stopped fighting, the war would end.

The End of the 1990s Dream

Vseviov rejected the notion that the US is solely responsible for global security, stating that the period in which the US believed it could solve multiple global crises simultaneously has passed. He argued that Europe must accept that “no one other than Europe will take responsibility for our security” and act accordingly. He suggested the 1990s were “the dream – and the dream is over.”

Estonia’s Approach to Coalition Building

Vseviov offered an example of Estonia’s tactical approach, citing an incident in 2025 when Russian fighter jets breached Estonian airspace. Estonia quickly gathered support, receiving unequivocal backing from 31 allies and support from 50 countries plus the EU ahead of a UN Security Council meeting. He said Estonia prioritized speed over securing a larger number of supporting nations.

Projecting Calm Competence

Vseviov argued that small states like Estonia can leverage “the power of words” – used with judgement. He invoked Lennart Meri, Estonia’s post-Soviet president, who was sought after for his views, even when not invited to meetings, because of the potential consequences of excluding him. He also stated that Estonia must project the calm competence of a state that has lived beside a difficult neighbor for centuries, citing South Korea as a model.

This article is based on an interview given by Jonatan Vseviov to the Estonian weekly newspaper Maaleht.