Gulf States & Iran: Escalation Risk After Regional Strikes

Gulf states, encouraged by former U.S. President Donald Trump, are nearing a shift in their neutrality in the conflict with Iran, responding to what they describe as Tehran’s “reckless and indiscriminate attacks” on their territory and infrastructure.

Gulf States Consider Response to Iranian Attacks

The potential change in stance, spearheaded by the United Arab Emirates within the six-country Gulf Cooperation Council, involves the Arab states acting in self-defense against Iran. Such a move would represent a significant escalation, effectively aligning Gulf leaders with Israel in a conflict with far-reaching implications for the Middle East.

A recent video meeting of GCC foreign ministers acknowledged the “option to respond to Iranian attacks” to protect regional security and stability, but did not explicitly announce a plan of action.

Over the past two years, Iran has attempted to persuade Gulf states that Israel, rather than Iran, is the primary source of instability in the region. However, these diplomatic efforts appear to have been undermined in recent days.

Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, has justified Iranian tactics as targeting U.S. forces stationed in Gulf states. “We do not intend to attack you. But when the bases of your country are used against us and the United States operates in the region with its own forces, we target them,” he stated.

However, this justification has lost credibility as attacks have expanded to include hotels, apartment buildings, and oil refineries, which are considered a disproportionate response. Some Arab leaders believe these tactics reveal a sense of arrogance on Iran’s part.

Iran’s strategic objective appears to be maximizing economic disruption in Gulf states, hoping to pressure Trump into ending a conflict initiated without their support.

Recent attacks include an Iranian drone strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, an attack on an oil tanker 50 miles off the coast of Muscat, Oman, and drone strikes on energy facilities in Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial city. Iran has denied attacking Saudi energy facilities.

Majed al-Ansari, a spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry, stated, “This cannot go unanswered; a price has to be paid for this attack on our people.” Doha has suspended its liquified natural gas production in response to the attacks.

Qatar’s former prime minister, Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber al-Thani, warned that Iran has “lost through this action the Gulf sympathy that was pushing with every possible effort towards de-escalation” and “sowed doubts that will be hard to erase” in its future relations with GCC states.

Yasmine Fariouk, Gulf and Arabian peninsula project director for the International Crisis Group, noted, “The Gulf countries now are at a point where there’s a lot of anger at Iran. Many of them have invested a lot in the detente with Iran and in mediating and trying to find solutions only to find that Iran still sees them as a platform for its bigger war with the US and with Israel.”

Some Gulf states have expressed dismay at the United States, with one Saudi Arabian official complaining to Al Jazeera that the U.S. redirected air defense resources to protect Israel, leaving Gulf states vulnerable to Iranian strikes.

Despite this, the primary focus of resentment from Gulf states remains directed towards Iran. They emphasize their prior commitments to prevent the U.S. from using their bases or airspace to attack Iran.

While Iran had signaled its intention to retaliate against a U.S. attack by targeting U.S. bases, the scale, speed, and breadth of the recent Iranian attacks have surprised Arab leaders. The UAE has withdrawn its ambassador from Tehran and claims Iran has launched more attacks on its territory than on Israel, reporting the detection of 174 ballistic missiles (161 destroyed, 13 falling into the sea), 689 drones (645 intercepted, 44 impacting the country), and eight cruise missiles (all destroyed), resulting in three fatalities and 68 minor injuries.

Kelly Grieco at the Stimson Center estimates the financial cost to the UAE at close to $2 billion (£1.5 billion) due to the high cost of intercepting drones.

In a joint statement, Bahrain, Iraq (including the Kurdistan region), Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates warned that “targeting civilians and countries not engaged in hostilities is reckless and destabilising”.

The attacks appear to have eased tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which had been strained by disagreements over Sudan and Yemen. The Saudi crown prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, and the UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed have spoken for the first time in months.

Saudi authorities have denied a Washington Post report alleging covert encouragement of a U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, a claim that could damage the royal family’s reputation domestically given its condemnation of Israeli actions in Gaza. The Gulf states have publicly and privately urged the U.S. to exercise restraint and pursue a diplomatic solution with Iran regarding its nuclear program.

The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, came close to apologizing for an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps attack on a U.S. facility in Oman, a country that has mediated nuclear talks, and argued that Iran had made unprecedented compromises by offering zero stockpiling of highly enriched uranium. Araghchi claimed that Iran’s military command had been devolved to ensure command and control wasn’t lost if military headquarters were destroyed.

There is currently limited public debate within Iran regarding whether the intended economic chaos is worth alienating Gulf states or if there is a risk of military retaliation, which could threaten the regime’s survival.

Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in defence studies at King’s College in London, told Al Jazeera that Iran “knows exactly what it’s doing” by attacking the Gulf countries, viewing them as easier targets than Israel and possessing a lower appetite for conflict.