Heavy rain watches have been upgraded to warnings as downpours approach Northland, parts of Auckland, and the Coromandel Peninsula. MetService has issued orange heavy rain warnings for Monday and Tuesday, forecasting prolonged rain, possible severe thunderstorms, and localized downpours.
Heavy Rain Forecast for Northland, Auckland, and Coromandel
Up to 110mm of rain is expected across Northland between tonight and Tuesday afternoon, with northern and eastern areas potentially receiving 150mm or more. For Auckland north of the Harbour Bridge, Great Barrier Island and the Coromandel Peninsula, heavy rain is forecast from early Tuesday, with totals generally between 80 and 120mm, but up to 140mm in eastern and higher areas.
More heavy rain is expected on Wednesday, with the potential for another watch or warning to be issued. A low of tropical origin, moving southeast, is expected to approach the North Island on Wednesday, bringing heavy rain and strong east to northeast winds.
“The path and strength of the low originating from the tropics is very uncertain,” MetService said. “It is likely that it will pass over the central North Island, and may extend a trough onto the South Island. The low and associated fronts should move off to the east of mainland New Zealand late in the day. Heavy rain and strong winds are possible in many northern and central parts of the country.”
The forecaster added that the uncertainty of the situation means the possibility of “significant changes” in these areas with subsequent forecasting.
Northland was impacted by torrential rain early Sunday morning that washed out roads and bridges, cutting off some communities along the east coast. Up to 200mm of rain fell in localized areas, causing “significant flooding” which damaged homes and a recently renovated community hall in Ōakura.
MetService meteorologist Devlin Lynden explained that a persistent moisture-laden easterly flow drawn down from the tropics has brought the rain to Northland. “As the moisture is pushed onto the coastal ranges, it is forced upward, this cools the air down and allows that moisture to condense and fall out as rain… and a lot of it.”
Civil Defence Northland is “actively preparing” for further heavy rain by monitoring forecasts alongside MetService and hydrologists, with planning and coordination meetings with councils and key stakeholders taking place. Access has been restored to nearly all previously affected areas across Whangaruru and much of the Whangārei District thanks to the efforts of emergency services, council teams, and volunteer community response groups.
Residents are encouraged to secure outdoor furniture and loose items, clear drains and gutters, move valuables and vehicles away from flood-prone areas, relocate stock from low-lying land and bring pets indoors, ensure they have food, water, medications, torches, and charged devices, as well as getting a grab bag and evacuation plan ready.
State Highway 2 through the Waioweka Gorge, the main route between Gisborne and Ōpōtiki, is likely to remain closed for several weeks after heavy rainfall on Friday triggered dozens of slips, washed out sections of road and forced more than 40 stranded people to be rescued by helicopter. Around 322mm of rain fell in 48 hours — double the area’s January average — causing up to 40 slips on the state highway.
Full list of weather warnings and watches
Heavy Rain Warning – Orange
Northland – 17 hours from 9pm Monday to 2pm Tuesday
Auckland north of the Harbour Bridge and Great Barrier Island – 16 hours from 2am Tuesday to 6pm Tuesday
Coromandel Peninsula – 24 hours from 2am Tuesday to 2am Wednesday
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