Hormuz Tanker Traffic: Recovery May Take Months Regardless

A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has sparked hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though maritime experts warn that shipping traffic is unlikely to normalize in the immediate future.

President Donald Trump stated Tuesday that the ceasefire is dependent on the full reopening of the strait, a critical energy artery that typically carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies. Vice President JD Vance added Wednesday that Iranian leadership has agreed to the opening.

Iran has indicated that the reopening will be conditional, remaining subject to technical limitations and coordination with the country’s armed forces.

Confidence among shipping operators remains low, particularly as Israel escalates attacks on Lebanon. Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence shows that traffic has not seen a meaningful rebound, with only four transits recorded on Wednesday.

Many vessels continue to use altered transit routes west along Larak Island. Additionally, some tankers have disabled their transponders to avoid potential targeting by Iran, meaning actual transit volumes may be slightly higher than reported, though still a fraction of prewar levels.

Maritime research firm Windward noted that the lack of defined toll arrangements, transit conditions, and a legal framework for passage continues to deter ship owners. The firm suggested that Iran may use its control of the strait as leverage during the two-week truce.

Strait remains effectively closed

Nils Haupt, communication chief at Hapag-Lloyd, stated that the company is currently refraining from transiting the strait based on current risk assessments. He noted that returning to normal operations is weeks away, as hundreds of thousands of containers at ports in Pakistan, Oman, and India must first be transported into the Persian Gulf.

Maersk also indicated that while the ceasefire creates opportunities, it does not yet provide the full maritime certainty required for operations.

Analysts pointed to the disruption caused by Houthis in the Red Sea last year as a cautionary example, noting that traffic often fails to return immediately after a ceasefire if the threat of attack persists.

However, some analysts suggest a faster recovery for the Strait of Hormuz compared to the Red Sea because rerouting options are far more limited, largely confined to pipeline diversions rather than long sea voyages around the Cape of Good Hope.

While oil prices have dropped from nearly $110 to around $97 per barrel, experts expect prices to remain at a premium. Logistical disruptions, higher war risk insurance, and global precautionary stockpiling continue to impact the market.

Industry experts noted that the final decision to transit often rests with ship captains, many of whom currently view the risk to their lives as outweighing any financial incentives.