How Australia Stopped the Boats: The Secret Border Strategy

European leaders are increasingly adopting offshore processing to deter asylum seekers, drawing inspiration from Australia’s border policies, though evidence suggests naval turnbacks—not offshore detention—were the primary driver of Australia’s success.

Europe’s Shift Toward Offshore Processing

Since 2014, approximately three million people have crossed the Mediterranean Sea seeking asylum. The journey is perilous, with 33,000 people missing and presumed dead, including at least 3,500 children.

Public opposition to irregular migration is high across Europe, with three quarters of voters favoring reinforced external borders. This sentiment has fueled political support for populist-right parties opposing the current asylum system.

In response, European leaders are turning to offshore processing, which involves holding asylum seekers in third countries while their claims are adjudicated. Italy is currently seeking to send asylum seekers to Albania, and Denmark has passed legislation to enable offshore processing to discourage arrivals.

The European Commission plans to loosen rules restricting offshore processing across the bloc. These changes will allow more asylum seekers to be processed in third countries, a move supported by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

The Australian Precedent

European policymakers have focused on Australia, where unauthorized boat arrivals peaked at over 25,000 between 2012 and 2013 before dropping to nearly zero for almost a decade. This perceived success led the previous British government to copy Australia’s “Stop the boats” slogan and appoint an Australian official to help draft its Rwanda plan.

However, analysis suggests that offshore processing did not stop people from attempting to reach Australia. Instead, the decisive factor was the practice of turning boats back to their country of origin before they reached Australian shores.

The evolution of Australia’s strategy reveals this distinction. While the “Pacific Solution” of 2001 combined offshore processing and turnbacks, a later attempt to rely primarily on offshore processing in 2012 failed. During that period, arrivals hit record highs as the facilities were overwhelmed.

Turnbacks vs. Offshore Processing

The effectiveness of turnbacks became clear under “Operation Sovereign Borders,” introduced in 2013. The Australian navy shifted toward more sophisticated interceptions, often using purpose-built vessels to tow passengers back to international or foreign waters.

By 2014, the Australian government quietly ended transfers to offshore sites in Nauru and Papua New Guinea. Despite the end of offshore processing, boat arrivals remained at zero for several years, proving that turnbacks alone were sufficient.

Offshore processing has proven to be both costly and controversial. The Australian government spent A$1.5 billion annually on the policy after 2012, while human rights groups noted the cruelty of long-term detention, including cases of suicide and individuals remaining in Nauru for 11 years.

Impact on Safety and Public Consensus

Despite the risks of naval interceptions, turnbacks are credited with making Australian waters safer. Between 2008 and 2013, over 1,200 people drowned attempting to reach Australia; no drownings are believed to have occurred in the years after turnbacks were reintroduced.

Furthermore, strict border control appears to have preserved public trust in the asylum system. Australians currently hold more positive views about asylum seekers than people in 28 other surveyed rich countries.

In 2023, three times as many people applied for asylum in Australia as did in 2013, indicating that the country has become more welcoming to those who apply through legal channels.