Despite weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes, roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers remain intact and thousands of one-way attack drones are still in its arsenal, according to recent U.S. intelligence assessments.
Iran’s Military Capabilities Remain Substantial
The assessments, shared with CNN by three sources familiar with the intelligence, indicate Iran is “still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region.” The total number of launchers may include those inaccessible, such as those buried underground.
Two sources indicated that approximately 50% of Iran’s drone capabilities remain. A large percentage of Iran’s coastal defense cruise missiles are also intact, consistent with the U.S. not focusing its air campaign on coastal military assets, though ships have been targeted. These missiles are key to threatening shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
The intelligence offers a more nuanced picture than public assessments of military victory offered by President Trump and administration officials. On Wednesday, Trump stated that Iran’s “ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed, and their weapons factories and rocket launchers are being blown to pieces, very few of them left.”
As of Wednesday, the U.S. has struck more than 12,300 targets inside Iran, according to U.S. Central Command. The intelligence suggests the U.S. military has degraded Iran’s military capabilities and killed key senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s National Security Council.
Iran maintains a large number of missiles in addition to its launchers.
The Pentagon has highlighted a reduction in the number of missiles launched by Iran, rather than those destroyed. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on March 19 that “ballistic missile attacks against our forces, down 90 percent since the start of the conflict, same with one way attack UAVs, think kamikaze drones, down 90 percent.”
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in response to questions about the story that “anonymous sources desperately want to attack President Trump and demean the incredible work of our United States Military in achieving the goals of Operation Epic Fury.”
Kelly stated, “Here are the facts: Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks are down 90 percent, their navy is wiped out, two-thirds of their production facilities are damaged or destroyed, and the United States and Israel have overwhelming air dominance over Iran. The terrorist regime is being decimated militarily and their dismal situation grows bleaker by the day – their only hope is to make a deal with President Trump’s administration and leave behind their nuclear ambitions for good. Otherwise, they will be hit harder than they’ve ever been hit before.”
An administration official added that Iran’s ballistic missiles are being destroyed rapidly.
Israeli military officials estimate the number of operational Iranian launchers at roughly 20-25%, not including those buried or inaccessible in tunnels and caves.
Trump put the timeline for finishing U.S. operations at two to three weeks on Wednesday. One source who reviewed the U.S. intelligence assessment called that goal unrealistic, given what remains available to Iran.
“We can keep f**king them up, I don’t doubt it, but you’re out of your mind if you think this will be done in two weeks,” the source said.
Hegseth said this week that Iran’s firepower is continuing to decrease. “Yes, they will still shoot some missiles, but we will shoot them down,” he said. “Of note, the last 24 hours saw the lowest number of enemy missiles and drones fired by Iran. They will go underground, but we will find them.”
The ability to go underground is a primary reason launchers have not been further degraded, two sources familiar with the assessment told CNN. Iran has long hidden launchers in extensive networks of tunnels and caves, preparing for conflict for decades. Two sources said Iran has successfully moved mobile platforms, making tracking difficult, similar to challenges the U.S. has faced with the Houthis in Yemen.
The U.S. and Israel have increasingly targeted tunnel entrances and equipment used to regain access to those facilities.
The recent intelligence assessment also comes as the U.S. has struggled to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, acknowledging privately that it cannot promise to reopen the crucial waterway before ending the war. The coastal cruise missile capabilities could remain largely intact because they haven’t been the focus of the U.S. military’s campaign, the first source said, instead focusing on threats to allies in the region. But those capabilities have also likely retreated underground, making them difficult to find.
While Iran’s Navy has largely been destroyed, the separate naval forces belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still retain roughly half of its capabilities. The second source said the IRGC still has “hundreds, if not thousands, of small boats and unmanned surface vessels left.”
As of Wednesday, CENTCOM said in a public release that more than 155 Iranian vessels have been damaged or destroyed. However, it has been unclear which Navy the U.S. refers to when reporting the destruction of Iranian vessels, according to Annika Ganzeveld, the Middle East Portfolio Manager for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute.
The IRGC Navy is largely responsible for harassing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
“There are certainly things that remain — the proxies, as well as the drones, and Iran recently demonstrated in the past couple of days that it still retains the ability to target shipping in the strait,” Ganzeveld said. “So there are definitely things that remain to be targeted if we want to completely destroy these capabilities.”
Discover more from Archyworldys
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
