Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz transit remains severely limited following a ceasefire, with Iranian authorities maintaining strict control over the strategic waterway and requiring ships to coordinate movements with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
- Only 12 vessels have crossed the strait since the ceasefire, far below the typical daily volume of more than 100 ships.
- Over 600 vessels, including approximately 325 tankers, currently remain stranded in the Gulf.
- Iran is weighing plans to formalize route control, including a proposed $2 million toll per container ship and a cryptocurrency levy per barrel of oil.
Limited Vessel Movements and Iranian Control
Ship-tracking data indicates that only a small number of vessels have successfully crossed the strait since the truce. Iran now requires all ships to follow specified routes and coordinate their movements with the Revolutionary Guard due to security risks.
The Gabon-flagged oil tanker MSG was among the first non-Iranian vessels to transit, carrying roughly 7,000 tonnes of Emirati fuel oil destined for India. A Liberia-flagged tanker, the Daytona Beach, also crossed the waterway at 8:59 a.m. CET after departing Iran’s Bandar Abbas port.
However, not all attempts have been successful. The Nidi, a Botswana-flagged liquefied natural gas tanker, was forced to reverse course after being directed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps while attempting to exit the Persian Gulf.
Diplomatic Efforts and Strategic Restrictions
Iran’s ambassador to Pretoria, Mansour Shakib Mehr, stated that reports of a total energy supply chain closure since February 28 are inaccurate. He asserted that restrictions are only applied to vessels linked to the United States and Israel.
Mehr noted that “special arrangements” have already been established to allow shipments bound for China and India to continue under specific conditions. He indicated that similar arrangements could be extended to South Africa.
Economic Risks and Proposed Transit Fees
While Nigeria and Angola provide a supply cushion for parts of Africa, meeting roughly two-thirds of crude demand in certain markets, the region remains vulnerable to global price volatility.
Tehran is currently in discussions with Egypt, India, Malaysia, and China to secure passage. As part of its plan to formalize control, Iran has proposed a toll of approximately $2 million per container ship. Additionally, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union suggested that shipping firms may be required to pay a levy in cryptocurrency for every barrel of oil transported through the strait.
Escalating US-Iran Tensions
The constrained status of the oil lifeline has led to sharp criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump, who described Iran’s management of the transit as “dishonorable.” Trump warned Iranian authorities to stop charging fees to tankers passing through the strait.
In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Washington of failing to honor the ceasefire. Referencing massacres in Lebanon, Araghchi stated that the responsibility now lies with the U.S. to act on its commitments.
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