Iran Proxies Threat: Gulf States, Israel, & US Concerns

Gulf countries have expressed increasing concern over potential attacks by Iran-backed militias and proxy armed groups, fearing destabilization and escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The concerns follow recent incidents and a joint statement condemning Iranian actions, both direct and through proxies.

Gulf States Condemn Iranian Attacks, Fear Proxy Activity

Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan jointly condemned Iranian attacks on their soil, citing strikes carried out directly from Iran and “through their proxies and armed factions they support in the region.” Kuwait announced Wednesday it had foiled a plot to kill state leaders, arresting six suspects believed to be linked to Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy group.

For decades, Iran has utilized proxy militias to advance its foreign and security policy, aiming to export its revolution, expand regional influence, and destabilize opposing nations. Prominent examples include Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, with other influential Iran-backed militias operating in Iraq and Syria.

While relations between Iran and Gulf states like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar saw a period of cooperation in recent years, these proxy groups largely remained quiet. However, since the US and Israel began bombing Iran in late February, the Gulf states have borne the brunt of Iran’s retaliation.

This retaliation has included thousands of missiles and drones, alongside a rise in incidents linked to armed groups and militias associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This has stoked fears that Iran may activate sleeper cells within the Gulf region.

Several Gulf countries have begun cracking down on Iranian proxy activity. Qatar reported arresting two cells involving over 10 people linked to the Iranian regime in early March. Bahrain arrested individuals accused of espionage for Iran, and Kuwait announced this week it had disrupted a large Hezbollah-linked cell plotting against national security.

The joint statement from Gulf states also called on the Iraqi government to halt attacks launched by factions and militias operating from Iraqi territory, emphasizing the need to preserve regional stability and avoid further escalation.

The threat from these groups is particularly concerning for Saudi Arabia, which has experienced attacks from Hezbollah al-Hejaz, and Bahrain, which has long accused Iran of establishing proxy cells within its borders. Saudi Arabia remains engaged in conflict with the Houthis in Yemen, though the Houthis have stated they will remain uninvolved in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Analysts note that the current level of Iranian proxy activity in the Gulf is not comparable to the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when militant cells targeted Kuwait and operated in Saudi Arabia. However, they warn the threat will increase the longer the conflict with Iran continues.

Bilal Saab, senior managing director of the Trends US thinktank and a former Pentagon official, stated that the worst-case scenario for Gulf countries would be Iran activating sleeper cells and Shia militia movements. He noted signs of dormant cells becoming active and being arrested in Kuwait and the UAE.

Saab added that concerns over Iran’s Revolutionary Guards activating these networks are influencing Gulf countries’ consideration of a more offensive approach to Iran’s attacks. The greatest fear among Gulf leaders is a situation similar to Iraq, where Iran’s proxy groups have become deeply embedded and operate almost as a “state within a state.”

“This is the number one existential threat for the Gulf states,” Saab said. “They are already dealing with the external threat of Iran’s missiles and drones, but things really fall apart when they also have to fight an internal foe. Then they are faced with a battle on two fronts.”