Short-term energy policies risk hindering the transition to genuine energy security, according to recent analysis. Geopolitical conflict and supply disruptions may lead to increased reliance on fossil fuels, but these responses could reinforce long-term dependence on carbon-intensive energy systems.
Vulnerabilities of Fossil Fuel Investment
In the short term, geopolitical conflict and supply disruptions may increase reliance on fossil fuels as governments prioritize energy security and supply stability. Current price increases in fossil fuels can also make commercial extraction more attractive, potentially slowing the energy transition.
However, the crisis also highlights the vulnerabilities inherent in fossil fuel supply chains and the strategic advantages of renewable energy. Governments could implement a windfall tax on increased fossil fuel profits as a tool to transition to renewables, counter consumer price increases and avoid fossil fuel lock-ins.
Expanding domestic renewable energy production reduces exposure to geopolitical shocks while supporting long-term decarbonisation goals. It’s vital that governments maintain momentum towards the global energy transition, while avoiding short-term policies that lock in further fossil fuel insecurity.
Grace Alexander is CEOBS military and conflict emissions researcher. If you find our work useful, please consider a donation so that we can continue it.
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