Iran War: Fertilizer Giant Warns of Africa Food Shortages

The CEO of the world’s largest fertiliser company has warned that the Iran war could have dramatic consequences, triggering food shortages and price spikes in some of Africa’s most vulnerable communities.

Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara International, warned that world leaders must act to prevent a “de facto global auction” for fertiliser. He stated that such a scenario would leave the poorest countries unable to afford necessary supplies.

Holsether noted that while Africa has the potential to be a major global food producer, the continent remains heavily reliant on food imports. He cautioned that while Europe will not face famine, the global competition for resources may effectively take food away from the most vulnerable.

Impact of Iran War Fertiliser Shortages

The financial intelligence firm S&P Global reports that the conflict is already deepening supply chain disruptions. Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that Ethiopia and Kenya are particularly exposed due to their dependence on nitrogenous fertilisers from the Middle East.

Since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran at the end of February, Yara has seen urea supplies choked. This has driven the price of urea up by 60% to 70%.

Additionally, production of ammonia—a foundational raw material for nitrogen-based fertilisers—has been severely impacted. Due to the risks of storing toxic substances during wartime, some countries, including Qatar, have suspended production entirely.

Holsether stated that production losses are occurring daily and restarting these operations could take weeks or months.

Global Disparity in Agricultural Support

The timing of the shortage coincides with the start of the sowing season in sub-Saharan Africa. Farmers in the region must also build stockpiles during the summer for 2027 crops, a standard planning practice now threatened by supply gaps.

While the European Union has loosened state subsidy rules and provided grant aid of up to €50,000 to individual farmers to cover increased fuel and fertiliser costs, no such support exists in Africa.

Holsether highlighted that African farmers start from a position of compromised soil health and lack of food reserves. Unlike European farmers, who can reduce fertiliser consumption without dramatic yield losses due to optimised soil, African farmers are often under-fertilising from the start.