Iran’s Future: War, Diplomacy & Revolt – What Now?

Streets in Iran have fallen silent after a week of the largest nationwide demonstrations in years, subdued by force. The protests, sparked by economic grievances, quickly escalated into a widespread challenge to the Islamic Republic, with some calling for the return of the exiled son of the last Shah.

Will the US and Iran come to blows?

One resident of Tehran compared the current mood in the capital to the days around Nowruz, the Iranian New Year, when many leave the city and shops close early, but noted the atmosphere lacked any festive cheer. Life carries on under the shadow of a deadly crackdown on protesters and the potential for a new military faceoff with the United States.

Last Thursday and Friday emerged as pivotal days in recent Iranian history, as economic protests transformed into what may be the greatest threat to the Islamic Republic since its inception in 1979. Large crowds took to the streets chanting “death to the dictator” and calling for the fall of the regime.

The scale of the crackdown indicates the Iranian regime, weakened by recent conflicts and the loss of regional proxies, was unwilling to compromise. An unprecedented digital shutdown has cut Iranians off from the world, obscuring the full extent of the brutality. More than 2,400 people have been killed since the start of the crackdown, according to US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).

Over the past several weeks, US President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened to attack Iran if the regime used violence against protesters. However, Trump stated Thursday that sources informed him the killing had stopped, suggesting no immediate US military action. Gulf officials have also urged the US to avoid strikes, warning of security and economic risks.

The US military is moving a carrier strike group to the Middle East, estimated to arrive in the Persian Gulf towards the end of next week. Despite this, talk of talks is louder than the drums of war, with Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff striking a conciliatory tone.

Analysts say the threat of American or Israeli strikes on Iran isn’t over. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, noted that Israel’s tensions with Iran were not related to the protests.

Iran would be negotiating from its weakest position yet should talks resume. Its main nuclear facilities were badly damaged by US strikes last summer, and most of its regional proxies have been neutralized by Israel. While Iran retains a stockpile of highly enriched uranium, the physical and symbolic blow is significant.

Any renewed talks would likely cover Iran’s missile program and its support for groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. However, Iran has historically treated these issues as non-negotiable.

The social contract between the Islamic Republic and its people is irreparably broken. The state has failed to protect its citizens, deliver economic prosperity, or allow political and social freedom, and has repeatedly used brutal violence to silence dissent. The 2022 protests saw some loosening of hijab rules, but the current unrest is different due to the unprecedented level of violence employed by the regime.

Outside Iran, opposition groups remain fractured. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah, has re-emerged as a potential rallying figure, but has struggled to build a diverse coalition or devise a plan for change without US intervention. Most opposition figures have been out of the country and haven’t “done the leg work,” according to Dina Esfandiary, Middle East lead for Bloomberg Economics.

The potential fall of the regime raises concerns about the collapse of Iran as a nation, given its ethnic and regional diversity and the agitation for separation by some groups. Another protest wave is likely, as a line has been crossed and a point of no return reached, according to Esfandiary.