Political factions in Iraq have been maneuvering since last month’s parliamentary election to form alliances that will shape the next government. The November election didn’t produce a decisive majority, leading to a prolonged period of negotiations.
Government Formation Challenges
The government that eventually emerges will inherit a stabilized security situation, but will also face a fragmented parliament, growing political influence by armed factions, a fragile economy, and conflicting international and regional pressures, including the future of Iran-backed armed groups.
Al-Sudani’s Position
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s party took the largest number of seats in the election. Al-Sudani positioned himself as a pragmatist focused on improving public services and managed to keep Iraq on the sidelines of regional conflicts.
While his party is part of the Coordination Framework, a coalition of Iran-backed Shiite parties that became the largest parliamentary bloc, observers say it’s unlikely that the Coordination Framework will support al-Sudani’s reelection bid. “The choice for prime minister has to be someone the Framework believes they can control and doesn’t have his own political ambitions,” said Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst and fellow at The Century Foundation think tank.
Al-Sudani came to power in 2022 with the backing of the Framework, but Jiyad said that he believes now the coalition “will not give al-Sudani a second term as he has become a powerful competitor.” The only Iraqi prime minister to serve a second term since 2003 was Nouri al-Maliki, whose bid for a third term failed after criticism for monopolizing power.
Jiyad said that the Coordination Framework drew a lesson from Maliki “that an ambitious prime minister will seek to consolidate power at the expense of others.” He added that the figure selected as Iraq’s prime minister must generally be seen as acceptable to Iran, the United States, and Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
Election Results Breakdown
In the election, Shiite alliances and lists secured 187 seats, Sunni groups 77 seats, and Kurdish groups 56 seats, in addition to nine seats reserved for minority groups. The Reconstruction and Development Coalition, led by al-Sudani, won 46 seats, primarily in Baghdad and several other provinces.
Al-Sudani’s results, while strong, don’t allow him to form a government without coalition support, forcing him to align with the Coordination Framework to preserve his political prospects. This dynamic was evident earlier this month when al-Sudani’s government retracted a terror designation imposed on the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group and Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
Shifting Political Landscape
The Coalition Framework saw its hand strengthened by the absence from the election of the Sadrist movement led by Muqtada Sadr, which has been boycotting the political system since being unable to form a government after the 2021 election. Hamed Al-Sayed, a political activist with the National Line Movement, said that Sadr’s absence had a “central impact.”
“It reduced participation in areas that were traditionally within his sphere of influence, such as Baghdad and the southern governorates, leaving an electoral vacuum that was exploited by rival militia groups,” he said. Groups with affiliated armed wings won more than 100 parliamentary seats, the largest showing since 2003.
Sunni forces, meanwhile, sought to reorganize under a new coalition called the National Political Council, aiming to regain influence. The Kurdish political scene remained dominated by the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan parties, with ongoing negotiations over the presidency, a position traditionally held by a Kurd.
Timeline and Key Issues
Parliament is required to elect a speaker within 15 days of the Federal Supreme Court’s ratification of the election result, which occurred on Dec. 14. The parliament should elect a president within 30 days of its first session, and the prime minister should be appointed within 15 days of the president’s election, with 30 days allotted to form the new government.
The incoming government will face major economic and political challenges, including a high level of public debt — more than 90 trillion Iraqi dinars ($69 billion) — and a state budget reliant on oil for about 90% of revenues. Entrenched corruption also remains a significant issue.
Perhaps the most delicate question will be the future of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of militias that formed to fight the Islamic State group. While formally placed under the control of the Iraqi military in 2016, it still operates with significant autonomy. Following the Hamas-led attack in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, some armed groups within the PMF launched attacks on U.S. bases in the region.
The U.S. has been pushing for Iraq to disarm Iran-backed groups. Two senior Iraqi political officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the United States had warned against selecting any candidate for prime minister who controls an armed faction and cautioned against letting figures associated with militias control key ministries or hold significant security posts.
“The biggest issue will be how to deal with the pro-Iran parties with armed wings, particularly those… which have been designated by the United States as terrorist entities,” Jiyad said.
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