2025 marked a continued decline in global peace, representing the latest in a decade-long surge of conflict and war around the world.
Grim Numbers on Global Conflict
Peace is demonstrably on the decline worldwide. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data index, a UN-funded monitor, reports that global conflict has doubled in the past five years. The International Institute for Security Studies reports a 23% increase in armed conflict in 2025 alone, with approximately 240,000 people killed by violent conflict. The Institute for Economics and Peace’s Global Peace Index also reported that peacefulness around the world has deteriorated for the sixth consecutive year.
Symptoms of this decline include flatlining global trade, the loss of 42% of government revenue in the developing world to debt interest repayments (with China as the largest global creditor), reductions in peacebuilding spending, a 42% decline in troops committed to peacekeeping, and a dramatic increase in the internationalisation of armed conflict.
The trends are driven by the relative decline of liberal democracy and the rise of authoritarian powers, profound shocks such as the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, and problems generated by economic growth based on globalisation, particularly rising inequality and social fragmentation. Nationalist populism is a product of these transformations.
Understanding the Drivers of War and Peace
While some argue that the incidence of war and peace naturally ebbs and flows, significant strides have been made in understanding the factors associated with both. Research demonstrates that democracy, gender equality, and fair trade are associated with greater peacefulness. Conversely, as war increases, these social goods are either in decline or severely challenged.
Peacekeeping efforts have been shown to reduce civilian victimisation, conflict-related sexual violence, and the likelihood of conflict reignition.
War as a Choice
The notion that humans are naturally warlike is inaccurate; humans are capable of both war and peace. War is a social practice resulting from human decisions, influenced by social structures, political ideas, and economic pressures, but not determined by them.
War occurs when people have fundamental disagreements about important values and are unwilling to compromise. However, governments and international organisations can create conditions that make war less likely and improve the ability to prevent, limit, and resolve conflict.
Priorities for the Year Ahead
Reaffirming international support for the principles of the United Nations Charter, including non-aggression, is crucial. This includes supporting those defending themselves against aggression, such as Ukraine.
Reviving support for UN and regional peacekeeping and peacebuilding efforts is also essential, as peacekeeping is demonstrably effective, particularly when focused on the protection of civilians, women, peace, and security.
Addressing the crisis in Gaza is a third urgent priority. A potential solution involves deploying the International Stabilisation Force, as outlined in the Gaza peace plan, with the authority and capability to protect civilians, safeguard Israel from Hamas, and facilitate the extension of legitimate government under the Palestinian Authority as a pathway towards Palestinian statehood.
World peace is possible because peace and war are human institutions, and even deeply ingrained institutions can be reformed. While not inevitable, peace is worth striving for.
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