Israel & Iran: Targeted Killings Amidst War – How It’s Done

Israel has been conducting intelligence-driven targeted strikes against top Iranian officials since late February, resulting in a number of killings, according to reports. The operations are aimed at disrupting Iran’s leadership and potentially prompting a shift in the regime’s policies.

Intelligence Gathering Methods

Intelligence used to locate targeted individuals falls into two main categories: on-the-ground informants and electronic tracking methods, including mobile and satellite surveillance, according to Glen Segell, an academic and political analyst based in Israel. Segell noted that a network of informants within Iran is actively reporting on each other.

Israel also collaborates with partners, including the United States, Iran’s neighbors, and various NATO sources, to gather intelligence. Monitoring communications between Iran and other countries, such as Russia, provides a broader understanding of the situation. Domestic resistance movements within Iran also contribute information.

Saudi Arabia’s Role

Saudi Arabia is a significant source of intelligence on Iran, particularly following drone attacks on Saudi oil fields a few years ago, Segell said.

Kill Chain and Unilateral Operations

Successful targeted killings require a rapid “kill chain” – a short timeframe between identifying a target’s location and executing a strike. Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. colonel and senior adviser with the CSIS think tank, emphasized that Israel possesses superior intelligence capabilities, allowing it to close this kill chain effectively.

Cancian stated that Israel is largely carrying out these strikes unilaterally. The U.S. and Israel have geographically divided their operations, with the U.S. focusing on the coast and southeast Iran, while Israel concentrates on the north and west.

Strategic Objectives

Israeli officials hope that eliminating key leaders will lead to the appointment of more moderate successors willing to negotiate, Segell explained. This strategy mirrors past efforts with groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS.

Potential Risks and Concerns

However, some analysts caution that removing senior figures could result in their replacement by less experienced or more hardline subordinates. Max Abrahms, a political scientist at Northeastern University, pointed to historical examples where violence by authoritarian regimes increased after targeted killings by foreign powers.

There is currently no public indication of internal divisions within the Iranian regime or a widespread uprising. Despite this, some analysts believe that continued relentless attacks could eventually destabilize the government.

Cancian suggested that Israel’s strategy is to erode the legitimacy and connections of Iranian leaders, potentially leading to a more favorable settlement or fracturing the regime. So far, this has not occurred, but remains the overarching goal.