Kurds, US & Iran: Risks of Arming a Kurdish Insurgency

The Iranian regime, weakened by recent military pressure, may be facing a new challenge as the United States considers bolstering Kurdish opposition forces to encourage a popular uprising within Iran.

U.S. Weighs Support for Kurdish Groups

Iran’s Kurdish minority, comprising between 8% to 17% of the country’s population, has long faced persecution under the Islamic Republic. Reports suggest the CIA is actively working to arm Kurdish opposition forces, beginning after the start of conflict on Feb. 28, 2026.

Trump administration officials have held discussions with Kurdish leaders in northern Iraq and northwestern Iran, exploring the possibility of utilizing opposition forces to destabilize the current regime. President Donald Trump personally contacted Masoud Barzani and Bafel Talabani, leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan, the day after the bombing campaign began.

These actions come amid reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been advocating for U.S.-Kurdish cooperation, with Israel maintaining established intelligence networks among Kurdish groups in Iran, Iraq and Syria.

The Kurds, roughly 30 million to 40 million people across Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran, are the world’s largest stateless ethnic group. Although united by shared heritage, Kurdish communities have developed distinct political cultures and leaderships.

Iran’s Kurdish minority, concentrated in the northwest, has been at the forefront of opposition to the Islamic Republic since its founding in 1979. Since then, Iran’s Kurds have faced persistent repression, including the suppression of an early autonomy movement, bans on Kurdish parties, restrictions on cultural expression, and public executions of activists.

Kurdish towns were among the most fervent sites of protests in 2022 following the death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian woman Mahsa Amini. The Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), ideologically affiliated with the Turkish-based Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), has conducted intermittent armed campaigns against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for two decades.

The Revolutionary Guard has already begun striking Kurdish positions with drones, reflecting Tehran’s long-standing posture of treating external pressure as an opportunity for Kurdish groups to advance their own political aims.

Several Kurdish groups have released public statements hinting at imminent action and urging Iranian military forces to defect.

A U.S. strategy of arming the Kurds faces ethical and regional challenges. U.S. intelligence assessments have consistently found that Iranian Kurdish groups currently lack the influence or resources to sustain a successful uprising. Kurdish opposition parties are fractured, with differing ideologies and competing agendas.

Arming Kurdish groups risks intensified repression against the civilian population, who have already suffered greatly. The regime’s response to insurgent activity has historically been indiscriminate, including collective punishment, executions, and the shelling of border villages.

The regime in Tehran is under severe strain, but transformation imposed through a proxy force without a clear political strategy and plan for the aftermath is unlikely to result in liberation. It echoes past U.S. interventions in the Middle East and could represent a new cycle of betrayal for Iran’s Kurds.