Labor and Albanese take a hit in post-Bondi Resolve poll

Labor maintains a lead in national polls despite recent challenges including an expenses scandal and the Bondi Junction attack, though Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings have declined. Polling data indicates a surge in support for One Nation, particularly among voters with lower levels of educational attainment.

Resolve Poll Shows Narrowed Labor Lead

A national Resolve poll conducted for Nine newspapers between December 17–20, following the Bondi attacks, showed Labor leading the Coalition 54–46 on respondent preferences, a one-point gain for the Coalition since an earlier December poll. The poll sampled 1,010 respondents, a smaller sample size than the usual 1,800.

Primary votes were 32% for Labor (down three percentage points), 28% for the Coalition (up two), 16% for One Nation (up two), 12% for the Greens (up one), 8% for independents (steady), and 4% for others (down two). Based on 2025 election preference flows, Labor’s lead would narrow to approximately 54–46, representing a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition.

Albanese’s Approval Slumps

Albanese’s net approval rating fell 15 points to -9, the lowest recorded in this poll since the May election, with 49% viewing his performance as poor and 40% as good. Sussan Ley’s net approval also decreased by seven points to -4. Albanese led Ley as preferred Prime Minister by 38–30, compared to 41–26 in early December.

Mixed Signals on Government Response and Social Cohesion

Respondents in the Resolve poll indicated a lack of confidence in the federal government’s response to the Bondi attacks, with 46% considering it weak and 29% considering it strong. Regarding social cohesion, 37% believed it was good, while 30% thought it was poor.

Concerns Over Racism and Antisemitism

The poll revealed widespread concern over a rise in racism in Australia following the Israel-Gaza conflict, with 72% of respondents believing it had increased (compared to 69% in January 2025). A majority, 55% to 13%, also perceived an increase in antisemitism compared to Islamophobia in recent months (54–9 in January 2025).

Strong Support for Gun Law Reform

A significant 76% of respondents advocated for tougher gun laws, with 10% wanting them to remain as they are and 6% favoring relaxation. Four out of five proposals for tightening gun laws garnered over 80% support, with the exception of restricting gun licenses to Australian citizens, which received 72% support.

Priorities for the Government

When asked to select two priorities for the government, 49% chose preventing terrorism, 45% tackling crime generally, 35% restricting access to guns, 33% preventing extremism, 29% tackling antisemitism, and 26% tackling hate speech.

Support for Stronger Laws on Hate Speech

By a margin of 66–9, respondents believed Australia needs stronger laws to ban hate speech based on religion and faith. The most popular proposal for addressing antisemitism was tougher immigration screening to identify antisemitic views (76–7 support), followed by a Royal Commission (48–17 support).

NSW Premier Minns Gains Favorability

In a New South Wales subsample of around 300 voters, Labor Premier Chris Minns’ net likeability increased eight points since November to +22.

YouGov Poll Reinforces Gun Law Support

A YouGov national poll conducted December 15–22 with 1,509 respondents found that 44% wanted personal guns like those used in the Bondi attack made illegal, 48% wanted tighter gun laws, and only 8% wanted no change. An overwhelming 81–19 majority believed Ahmed al Ahmed, who disarmed one of the Bondi gunmen, deserved to be named Australian of the Year.

Morgan Poll Shows Shift After Expenses Scandal

A Morgan poll conducted between November 17 and December 14 showed Labor’s lead narrowing in the final week (December 8–14) following the emergence of the expenses scandal. Labor’s lead dropped to 54.5–45.5 during that period, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition compared to the first three weeks of the poll (56–44). Primary votes for the final week were 30.5% Labor (down 2.5), 27.5% Coalition (up 1.5), 17% One Nation (up two), 13% Greens (down 0.5), and 12% for all others (down 0.5).

The full four-week poll, with a sample of 4,862, showed the Coalition regaining the lead in Queensland by 50.5–49.5, while Labor led in the other five states. Labor led 58.5–41.5 among women and 52.5–47.5 among men.

Labor led 69.5–30.5 with those aged 18–34 and 58.5–41.5 with those aged 35–49. The Coalition gained ground with those aged 50–64, leading by 50.5–49.5, a 4.5-point swing. The Coalition also led with those aged 65 and over by 54.5–45.5. One Nation’s support was highest among those aged 50–64 (20.5%) and in Queensland (22%).

Newspoll Aggregate Data

Aggregate data from three Newspolls conducted between September 29 and November 20 (total sample size of 3,774) showed Labor holding an overall 57–43 lead. Labor led by 58–42 in NSW (a two-point gain for the Coalition since the September quarter), 60–40 in Victoria (a two-point gain for Labor), 52–48 in Queensland (a one-point gain for Labor), 56–44 in Western Australia (a two-point gain for Labor), and 58–42 in South Australia (a three-point gain for Labor).

Educational Attainment and Voting Intentions

Among those without a tertiary education, primary votes were 30% Labor (down two), 26% Coalition (down six), 20% One Nation (up nine), and 14% Greens (up one), resulting in a 53–47 Labor lead. With TAFE-educated voters, primary votes were 35% Labor (down two), 24% Coalition (down one), 19% One Nation (up seven), and 9% Greens (steady), for a 54–46 Labor lead (a three-point gain for the Coalition). Among university-educated voters, primary votes were 41% Labor (up three), 26% Coalition (down three), 13% Greens (down two), and 6% One Nation (up one), resulting in a 62–38 Labor lead (a two-point gain for Labor).

Politician Likeability

A Resolve poll of net likeability of federal politicians, conducted in early December, found only Lidia Thorpe (-12) and Barnaby Joyce (-4) with negative net likeability. Prominent Labor politicians had positive ratings: Chris Bowen (net zero), Murray Watt (+4), Jim Chalmers (+5), Richard Marles (+6), Tony Burke (+7), Tanya Plibersek (+9), and Penny Wong (+11). David Pocock and Jacqui Lambie were the most liked, both at +15. Greens leader Larissa Waters was at +5.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson’s net likeability increased 16 points since December 2024 to +3, but was down five points since November. Joyce’s net likeability was up 18 since December 2024 and up four since November. Thorpe’s net likeability surged 29 points since December 2024. Jacinta Price, a Liberal politician, was down five points to +3.