The Liberal Party has claimed victory in the Nepean byelection on the Mornington Peninsula, a result viewed as a key indicator for the broader Victorian state elections scheduled for November.
- Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh led with 38.5% of the primary vote and 63.4% on a two-candidate basis.
- One Nation’s Darren Hercus secured 24.7% of the primary vote, surpassing independent Tracee Hutchison.
- Despite the win, the Liberal Party suffered a primary vote swing of nearly 10% against it.
Results of the Nepean Byelection
With nearly 80% of the vote counted, Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh appeared to be in a commanding position. The result provides a boost to opposition leader Jess Wilson, though Wilson noted that the party still has work to do before the November poll.
The Victorian Electoral Commission initially tracked the two-candidate vote as a race between the Liberals and independent Tracee Hutchison. However, One Nation’s Darren Hercus eventually moved into second place, recording 24.7% of the primary vote compared to Hutchison’s 21.3%.
In a speech to supporters, Marsh described the result as the “honour of my life” and pledged to fight for the people of Nepean leading into the state election.
Party Dynamics and Candidacy
Labor opted not to field a candidate in the byelection. The contest was triggered by the sudden resignation of Victorian Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth.
During the campaign, Marsh acknowledged that he does not reside within the electorate and was unable to vote for himself. He noted, however, that he has served as mayor in the area three times over the last five years.
Darren Hercus told reporters that the race was tight and that some Liberal voters shifted their support to One Nation due to frustrations with their own party. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson campaigned alongside Hercus but was not present on polling day.
Regional Impact and Analysis
Independent candidate Tracee Hutchison stated that many voters sought an alternative after feeling overlooked by major parties for decades.
Benjamin Moffitt, a senior politics lecturer at Monash University, suggested that the strong showing for One Nation aligns with national polling and recent South Australian election results. Moffitt noted that such performance could present a significant problem for the Liberal Party in the upcoming state election.
The Nepean electorate encompasses a diverse range of demographics, from wealthy areas like Sorrento, Portsea, and Flinders to low socioeconomic regions such as Capel Sound. Local issues driving the vote include public transport and the planned revamp of Rosebud hospital.
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