Museveni Wins: Bobi Wine Defeated in Uganda Election 🇺🇬

For supporters of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, his victory in the recently concluded election affirms his 40-year rule. He won with 72% of the vote, nearing his highest tally of 74% in Uganda’s first direct presidential election in 1996.

Museveni’s Continued Rule

The win reinforces Museveni’s claim that he still commands the support of the majority of Ugandans, after seizing power as a rebel commander in 1986, ending the rule of Milton Obote.

However, Museveni’s main rival, Bobi Wine, dismissed the result as “fake” and said he had gone into hiding following a raid on his home by security forces.

Museveni campaigned largely on his track record, arguing that he has delivered political and economic stability in an era of global uncertainty. He pledged to steer Uganda towards achieving middle-income status by 2030, a milestone his supporters see as a fitting legacy for a leader who will finish his seventh – and possibly final – term the following year.

Oil Exports and Economic Growth

Museveni views Uganda’s nascent oil industry as central to achieving that goal. He repeatedly told voters on the campaign trail that once exports commence, the economy would grow at double-digit rates.

He has set October as the target date for the first crude oil exports, via a 1,443 km pipeline to the Indian Ocean port of Tanga in Tanzania.

Despite his age, the president has sought to project vitality and control. At one of his final campaign rallies, he told supporters that he had visited all of Uganda’s more than 140 electoral constituencies.

However, his team abruptly cancelled several campaign events in early October, citing unspecified “state duties” – an explanation many found unconvincing, fueling speculation about the 81-year-old’s health. Subsequent pauses in his schedule only deepened those concerns.

Bobi Wine’s Disputed Results

For Wine, the result was a significant setback. His share of the vote slumped from 35% in 2021 to 25% this time, despite Uganda’s overwhelmingly young population – a demographic long viewed as his natural base.

Wine maintains that the campaign was not free and fair, pointing to repeated disruptions of his rallies by security forces, including the use of tear gas and live ammunition to intimidate supporters, some of whom were killed. He also alleged ballot stuffing but has not provided evidence to support his claims. The authorities have not commented on the allegations.

After two unsuccessful presidential bids, questions now hang over Wine’s political future. There is a growing risk that he could follow the path of many opposition figures across Africa – politicians whose popular appeal was eroded by sustained repression, leaving them permanently excluded from power.

Shifting Power Dynamics

During the campaign, Wine embodied the energy and impatience of Uganda’s youth, while Museveni cast himself as the seasoned patriarch, the guarantor of stability. Ultimately, according to the disputed official results, voters opted for the latter.

Those seeking to understand Uganda’s next chapter have largely focused on the question of presidential succession – when and how Museveni will eventually exit the stage.

Ugandan journalist and political analyst Allan Kasujja cautions against being fixated on this issue. “Change in Uganda, especially political change, does not, and almost certainly will not, happen suddenly,” Kasujja says. “It happens gradually, and that process has been under way for some time.”

The election appears less a moment of transformation than a ritual of the political calendar, legitimizing deeper, slower shifts taking place within the ruling party, the National Resistance Movement (NRM), and the state machinery it controls.

These shifts were first noticed during a cabinet reshuffle by Museveni in March 2023, and became unmistakable in the August 2025 elections for the NRM’s top decision-making body, the Central Executive Committee.

The process turned into a high-stakes struggle over positioning in a post-Museveni order, marked by factional bargaining and allegations of widespread bribery. It revealed a regime increasingly driven by succession politics rather than competition with an opposition that had either been dealt with by the security forces or co-opted.

The Rise of Muhoozi Kainerugaba

It provided the clearest indication yet of the growing influence within the ruling party of army chief Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba – the son of the president and his potential successor. Veteran figures from the party’s old guard were pushed aside, replaced by newer faces, many without the credentials of having fought in the war that brought Museveni to power 40 years ago, but widely seen as loyal to his son.

Sources close to the presidency say authority at State House has become increasingly decentralized, with decisions once taken directly by Museveni now channeled through a tight inner circle of relatives and long-time associates. Museveni’s day-to-day schedule is said to be overseen by his eldest daughter, Natasha Karugire. Relations with foreign dignitaries and senior military figures are largely managed by his half-brother, Salim Saleh, while trade and economic policy are shaped by his son-in-law, Odrek Rwabwogo, married to Museveni’s second daughter, Patience.

For the first time in the country’s modern history, all security matters – both internal and external – are overseen by the chief of defense forces, the 51-year-old Gen Kainerugaba. Given the dominant role that the military has long played in Ugandan politics and the fact that Museveni himself came to power through armed struggle, this concentration of authority has profound political implications.

It suggests that Uganda’s future is being shaped – and increasingly controlled – by Museveni’s son, even if he does not hold the title of head of state, yet.