Mountain West Conference: A Season of Upsets

The 2025 college football season has been anything but predictable in the Mountain West. Boise State, traditionally a dominant force, suffered a shocking home loss to Fresno State, a team that appeared to be faltering just weeks prior. New Mexico engaged in a high-scoring shootout with UNLV, while Hawaii’s promising momentum was halted by a resurgent San Jose State squad. Even non-conference contests contributed to the chaos, with a last-second field goal deciding a nail-biting matchup between Army and Air Force.

This level of unpredictability underscores the increasing competitiveness within the Mountain West. The conference boasts a number of programs capable of challenging for the title, making each week a critical test for contenders. San Diego State, however, has consistently risen to the occasion, navigating a challenging schedule with impressive poise. Their only blemish remains a narrow defeat to Washington State, a result that looks increasingly improbable as the season progresses.

Air Force Falcons at San Jose State Spartans: Offensive Showcase Expected

Saturday’s matchup between Air Force and San Jose State is poised to be an offensive affair. The Falcons, coming off a heartbreaking loss to Army, will look to rebound against a Spartans team that rediscovered its offensive rhythm against Hawaii. San Jose State’s success hinges on the performance of quarterback Walker Eget, who has been exceptional in recent weeks, throwing for 352.5 yards per game with 15 touchdowns and, crucially, no interceptions over his last six contests.

Air Force’s struggles against the pass – ranking 132nd nationally – will be severely tested. However, the Spartans’ porous passing defense, ranked last in the nation, presents an opportunity for the Falcons to exploit. While Air Force will undoubtedly prioritize its ground game, quarterback Liam Szarka may need to contribute through the air to keep the Spartans honest. Prediction: San Jose State will outscore Air Force in a high-scoring contest.

Line: San Jose State –4.5
Over/Under: 66.5

Nevada Wolf Pack at Utah State Aggies: Aggies Poised for Victory

Nevada’s offensive struggles continue to plague the Wolf Pack, averaging a meager 14 points per game – the fourth-lowest total in the nation. They face a daunting task against Utah State, a team capable of putting points on the board. While the Aggies’ defense isn’t impenetrable, allowing 31.8 points per game, their offensive firepower, led by Bryson Barnes, should prove too much for Nevada to handle.

Utah State has a clear path to bowl eligibility, while Nevada is mired in a six-game losing streak. The Aggies’ ability to score consistently, coupled with Nevada’s offensive woes, makes this a favorable matchup for the home team. Prediction: Utah State will secure a decisive victory.

Line: Utah State –9.5
Over/Under: 52.5

UNLV Rebels at Colorado State Rams: Rebels Look to Rebound

Despite consecutive losses, UNLV remains a formidable opponent. The Rebels have secured bowl eligibility for the third consecutive season, a testament to their program’s recent success. Colorado State, however, faces a desperate situation, needing to win out to extend their season. UNLV’s recent defensive lapses – allowing 545 yards and 9.73 yards per play in their losses – are a concern, but Colorado State’s offense hasn’t demonstrated the explosiveness to consistently capitalize.

The Rebels’ road record in Fort Collins is dismal, having not won there since 2002. However, UNLV’s overall momentum and offensive capabilities suggest they will break that streak. Prediction: UNLV will secure a road win.

Line: UNLV –4.5
Over/Under: 62.5

San Diego State Aztecs at Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors: Aztecs Continue Dominance

San Diego State has established itself as the class of the Mountain West, boasting a 4-0 conference record. Their balanced attack, featuring a strong running game led by Lucky Sutton (averaging 102.5 rushing yards per game) and a stingy defense, presents a significant challenge for any opponent. Hawaii, despite a recent loss to San Jose State, remains a dangerous team, particularly at home.

However, the Aztecs’ ability to control the clock and limit Hawaii’s offensive opportunities should prove decisive. If San Diego State avoids an upset, they will continue their impressive winning streak. Prediction: San Diego State will win and cover the spread.

Line: San Diego State –7
Over/Under: 50.5

What impact will these results have on the Mountain West Championship race? And can any team realistically challenge San Diego State’s dominance?

Frequently Asked Questions About the Mountain West Conference