Beyond Traditional Metrics: A New Definition of Success

The optimism isn’t rooted in a resurgence of traditional metrics, Dr. Nel explained. Instead, it stems from a willingness to move beyond those metrics and embrace a more diversified and realistic view of success. “These are leaders who are actively looking up and around – benchmarking, learning, and testing new assumptions – rather than just looking down at legacy dashboards,” he noted. Many organizations have streamlined operations, diversified their income streams, and adopted a more pragmatic approach to growth.

This isn’t about working harder; it’s about working smarter. It’s about recognizing that the strategies of the past are no longer viable and deliberately charting a new course. What we’re witnessing isn’t denial of decline, but confidence born of adaptation.

The Global Divide: Growth in Developing Markets

A striking finding of the report is the significant disparity in projected revenue growth between developing and developed markets. Publishers in developing markets are expected to see growth more than triple that of their counterparts in developed nations (24.8% vs. 7.8%). This divergence is largely due to the fact that many developing markets represent untapped audiences, particularly those who were never fully served by traditional news media.

In countries like India, Nigeria, and Kenya, news consumption is overwhelmingly mobile-first, occurring primarily through social platforms, messaging apps, and video. Furthermore, many publishers in these regions avoided the substantial fixed costs associated with print, granting them greater flexibility. However, Dr. Nel cautions that larger audiences don’t automatically translate into revenue, as global platforms still capture a significant share of digital advertising. The optimism, therefore, lies in the headroom for experimentation with advertising, partnerships, events, and emerging reader-revenue models.

Developed markets, such as the United Kingdom and the United States, face a different set of challenges: saturated audiences, subscription fatigue, intense competition, and higher operating costs. Growth in these markets is focused on defending and optimizing existing models, rather than expanding into new territory. The difference isn’t about journalistic quality, but about the availability of space to build sustainable business models.

AI: Promise and Peril in the Newsroom

While artificial intelligence is gaining traction in newsrooms, its impact on monetization and audience engagement remains limited. The primary barrier isn’t technological, but rather a question of trust. “AI is being used first where it saves money – and held back where it affects trust,” Dr. Nel explained. News organizations are cautiously implementing AI in areas like newsroom workflows, where the benefits are clear and the risks are manageable.

However, applying AI to monetization and audience engagement requires a higher level of confidence in data usage, accountability, and control. Publishers are wary of relinquishing control over audience insights, pricing logic, or customer relationships to third-party technology providers. This caution is understandable; protecting trust is paramount. Nieman Lab’s coverage of AI in local news provides further insight into these challenges.

What role do you believe ethical considerations should play in the implementation of AI within the news industry?

The Digital Subscription Plateau: A Pause, Not a Ceiling

Digital revenue growth has stalled at around 31% in recent years, leading some to question whether digital subscriptions have reached their limit. Dr. Nel argues that this isn’t necessarily a ceiling, but rather a period of maturation. “It’s less a ceiling than a pause – a sign that first-generation digital models are maturing,” he stated. However, he also acknowledges that digital subscriptions have inherent limitations.

The early success of digital subscriptions, pioneered by Rupert Murdoch’s paywall at The Times in 2010, demonstrated that a smaller base of paying readers could be more valuable than a large, free audience. However, the global potential for subscription revenue is limited. The majority of people worldwide still do not pay for online news, citing lack of trust, affordability, perceived value, or simply a disinterest in news consumption.

The next phase of growth will require bundling, pricing innovation, differentiated content, and deeper engagement, not simply acquiring more subscribers. Furthermore, Dr. Nel points to a deeper societal issue: the vast wealth inequality globally. “Only around 10% of people globally pay for news – and that same top 10% also holds the vast majority of global wealth. Why do we expect the bottom 90% to fund a media system they often feel doesn’t represent them?”

How can news organizations better serve and represent the interests of a broader segment of the population to foster greater trust and encourage financial support?

The Rise of the ‘Third Pillar’: Diversifying Revenue Streams

“Other” revenue – income from non-traditional sources like events, partnerships, and services – has nearly doubled since 2021, jumping from 13.2% to 25.4%. This growth reflects a recognition that publishers possess valuable assets beyond content, including trust, expertise, data, and relationships. As advertising and subscriptions reach their limits, organizations are increasingly monetizing these assets.

The potential of this “third pillar” varies depending on the publisher. Specialist, B2B, or mission-driven organizations may find that “other” revenue rivals or even exceeds reader revenue. For general-interest newsrooms, it’s more likely to serve as a stabilizing force. This diversification requires new skills and governance structures, and it must align with editorial purpose and audience trust. Columbia Journalism Review’s analysis of revenue diversification offers valuable insights into this trend.

Ultimately, building a sustainable media ecosystem requires a broader base of support, not a reliance on any single revenue stream.

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