Rising global oil prices, spurred by recent attacks involving the US and Israel in Iran, are creating economic pressure across Africa, particularly as fuel costs increase. Several nations on the continent are grappling with the financial strain, with limited capacity to shield consumers from the surging prices.
Fuel Pressure Across Africa
South Africa’s National Treasury has acknowledged its limited ability to mitigate the impact of rising fuel costs. Crude prices have increased by more than 40%, exceeding $100 a barrel, and disruptions in shipping and production are being felt throughout the continent.
Duncan Pieterse, Director-General of the National Treasury, stated at a Stanlib Asset Management conference in Johannesburg that providing relief on petrol and diesel costs would require tens of millions of rand, according to Bloomberg reporting. He added, “Without those resources in our fiscal buffers, any relief would be minimal or non-existent.”
South Africa previously reduced its general fuel levy by 1.50 rand per litre in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Any similar intervention now would be small, temporary, and funded within the existing budget. The Treasury collected approximately 97 billion rand from fuel levies in 2025–26.
The disruption in oil prices comes as South Africa’s economy is still recovering, having experienced 1.1% growth last year—its highest rate since 2022. The country has underperformed economically for a decade, averaging less than 1% annual growth, due to electricity shortages and logistical bottlenecks that hampered mining, manufacturing, and investment.
Beyond South Africa, other African countries are also facing challenges. Ethiopia is urging citizens to reduce fuel consumption amid supply disruptions from the Middle East. Nigeria, benefiting from the Dangote Refinery, has increased fuel prices three times recently, impacting households.
Analysts caution that developing nations may find it increasingly difficult to secure fuel as wealthier countries outbid them in global markets.
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