One Nation might not only be a Coalition problem – there are warning signs for Labor too | Australian politics

One Nation’s increasing popularity, reaching 22% in the latest polling, has largely been attributed to dissatisfaction within the Coalition, but new data indicates the party is also attracting voters from the Labor base.

Labor on Alert

The latest Guardian Essential poll shows 45% of Labor voters surveyed are open to voting for One Nation, prompting Labor ministers to sharpen their attacks on the party. These attacks focus on One Nation’s stance on cost of living, industrial relations, and ties to Gina Rinehart. The government intends to emphasize its focus on tax, housing, and social issues to counter any potential shift in support.

Labor MP Mike Freelander believes that while some voters may drift towards One Nation, its divisive nature and lack of concrete policies make a significant impact on Labor support less likely.

Growing Appeal Across the Political Spectrum

The Essential poll found 58% of respondents are open to voting for One Nation in the next federal election, due by 2028. This includes 12% of current Labor voters who would definitely vote One Nation and another 33% who are open to it. Among Coalition voters, 17% would definitely vote One Nation, with 51% open to the possibility.

One Nation sources indicate the party has been actively courting traditional blue-collar Labor voters who feel underserved by the party’s current focus on cities, professionals, and younger demographics.

Strategic Response

Prime Minister Albanese has criticized One Nation’s opposition to policies like ‘same job same pay’ legislation, increases to penalty rates, and pay increases for aged care workers. Labor MP Dan Repacholi emphasizes the importance of direct engagement with constituents, focusing on health, economic policies, and the ‘same job same pay’ initiative.

Environment Minister Murray Watt acknowledged potential vote losses but highlighted One Nation’s opposition to reforms on housing, cheaper medicines, and wages as a key point of differentiation.

Analyzing Voter Sentiment

Former Labor strategist Kos Samaras notes that potential Labor-to-One Nation voters are typically in their 40s or 50s, working in sectors like care, retail, hospitality, or industry, and would benefit from improved working conditions. He cautions against overinterpreting polls, suggesting that One Nation’s extreme views on multiculturalism may deter many Labor voters.

Analysts also point to a broader “fed up” factor, with voters expressing frustration with major parties and the cost of living. While One Nation lacks a comprehensive policy agenda, some voters may be drawn to its promise of systemic change.

Avoiding Past Mistakes

Experts, like Peter Lewis of Essential, advise Labor against repeating past mistakes, such as Hillary Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” comments or the British Labour government’s crackdown on migrants in response to anti-immigration parties. Lewis suggests focusing on economic agendas, wages, and workers’ rights to win back potential voters.

Assistant Minister for Citizenship, Customs and Multicultural Affairs, Julian Hill, urged progressives not to dismiss “legitimate concerns” about migration levels. He believes acknowledging these concerns is crucial.

The upcoming May budget presents an opportunity for the government to address concerns about inequality through policies like changes to capital gains tax or negative gearing.