One Nation’s primary vote has surged to 24 percent, overtaking the Coalition for the first time in Resolve polling, as support for both major parties continues to decline.
Shift in Political Landscape
The Coalition’s primary vote has fallen to a record low of 22 percent despite a recent change in leadership, with Angus Taylor replacing Sussan Ley. Taylor recorded a net score of plus 9 percentage points for his performance, compared to minus 17 points for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and a woeful minus 23 points for Ley in the final poll before she was forced out last month.
Labor’s primary vote has also regressed to 29 percent, its lowest mark in a year. Half of all respondents indicated they would not vote for one of the major parties.
Key Points
- One Nation’s primary vote has surged to 24 percent, overtaking the Coalition for the first time in Resolve polling.
- The federal opposition’s primary support has plummeted to a record low of 22 percent despite a leadership change.
- Labor’s primary vote has also regressed to 29 percent, its lowest mark in a year as half of all respondents said they would not vote for one of the major parties.
Factors Influencing Voter Sentiment
The poll, conducted by Resolve from March 9 to 14, was taken against the backdrop of rising fuel prices due to the Iran war and increasing cost-of-living pressures.
A significant 50 percent of voters indicated they would support a political party other than the major parties, including One Nation, the Greens, or independents – a first for the Resolve Political Monitor. This signals growing disillusionment with the traditional political players.
Labor’s support has dropped from 34.6 percent in the May election, reaching its lowest point in March 2025. The Coalition’s support has fallen by 15 percentage points in a year, from 37 percent to 22 percent. One Nation’s support has risen from 7 percent last March to 24 percent, surpassing the Coalition for the first time.
Farrer By-election and Policy Priorities
The findings come as the Coalition, One Nation, and independent Michelle Milthorpe prepare for the Farrer by-election on May 9. The Liberal Party has selected Albury councillor and lawyer Raissa Butkowski as its candidate, replacing Ley who held the seat for 25 years.
Support for the Greens and independents increased by 1 percentage point each, reaching 12 percent and 8 percent, respectively.
Voters’ top policy priority remains keeping the cost of living low, with 43 percent of respondents citing this issue, including concerns about housing and rental costs.
The poll included 1803 respondents and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percent.
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