The United States has placed Pakistan among countries whose advancing missile capabilities could eventually reach US territory, alongside Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard presented the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment to the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday, citing the development of missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional payloads.
Pakistan’s Missile Development
Gabbard told lawmakers that Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile development potentially could include Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) capable of striking the US homeland. The written assessment further detailed that Pakistan “continues to develop increasingly sophisticated missile technology that provides its military the means to develop missile systems with the capability to strike targets beyond South Asia.”
The report assessed that Pakistan, alongside China, North Korea and Russia, would “probably continue to research, develop, and field delivery systems that will increase their ranges and accuracy, challenge US missile defences, and provide new WMD-use options”.
Regional Security Challenges
South Asia was flagged as a region of “enduring security challenges”, with India-Pakistan relations remaining a risk for nuclear conflict. The assessment referenced last year’s Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir as an example of potential triggers for crisis, while noting that former President Trump’s intervention de-escalated recent nuclear tensions and that neither country currently seeks open conflict.
The assessment projected that threats to the US homeland could expand from more than 3,000 missiles today to at least 16,000 by 2035.
Current Capabilities and US Response
Pakistan’s longest-range operational missile, the Shaheen-III, has an estimated range of roughly 2,750km (1,710 miles). An intercontinental ballistic missile generally has a range exceeding 5,500km (3,420 miles), a capability Pakistan does not currently possess. Even with shorter range ICBMs, Pakistan would not be in a position to reach US shores, which are over 7,000 miles (11,200km) away.
US officials assessed in January of last year that Pakistan’s ability to field long-range ballistic missiles was “several years to a decade away”. In December 2024, the Biden administration sanctioned Pakistan’s National Development Complex, along with three private companies, accusing them of procuring items for long-range missile development.
Pakistan’s Response
While Pakistan has not issued a formal statement on the latest assessment, it has previously described US sanctions as “biased and politically motivated”. Jalil Abbas Jilani, a former Pakistani ambassador to Washington, rejected Gabbard’s remarks on social media, stating Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is India-specific and aimed at maintaining credible deterrence in South Asia.
Abdul Basit, a former Pakistani high commissioner to India, also criticised the comparison, stating Pakistan’s nuclear programme has always been India-specific.
Pakistan has long maintained that its nuclear and strategic programmes are calibrated solely to deter India. Three months after its May 2025 conflict with India, Pakistan announced the formation of its Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC).
Debate Over Intent
Some analysts suggest Islamabad’s motivation might not be India, but rather to deter Washington from intervening in a future India-Pakistan conflict or from launching a preventive strike against Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. However, Pakistani analysts have challenged this premise, stating that Pakistan’s deterrence posture remains India-centric.
Christopher Clary, a political scientist at the University at Albany, noted that Gabbard’s assessment clarifies an open question about the Trump administration’s stance on Pakistan’s ICBM development.
Diplomatic Backdrop
Gabbard’s assessment comes at a complex moment in US-Pakistan relations. Over 2025, the two countries underwent a diplomatic reset, driven in part by the four-day conflict between India and Pakistan in May. Trump has repeatedly cited his administration’s role in brokering the ceasefire, claiming credit and opening the door to a broader recalibration in ties, including Pakistan’s nomination of Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Relations warmed further when Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for a private White House lunch in June. Munir visited Washington twice more later in the year, including a September meeting with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Trump described Munir as “my favourite field marshal” at the Sharm el-Sheikh summit in October and has praised him repeatedly.
Pakistan’s strategic relevance has also extended to the Middle East, making it a useful interlocutor, including during the continuing US-Israeli strikes on Iran. In September, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence agreement.
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