Poland is facing a sustained campaign of sabotage and disruption attributed to Russia, encompassing cyberattacks, GPS jamming, arson, and infrastructure damage, costing the nation hundreds of millions of zlotys and reshaping its fiscal policy. These “nuisance” operations, while falling short of open conflict, are escalating in frequency and financial impact.
The Cost of Resilience
Warsaw allocated over 4 billion zlotys ($1.12 billion) for cybersecurity in 2025, the largest such investment in its history. Despite this, Poland’s 2026 budget deficit is projected at 6.3% of GDP, exceeding the EU’s 3% limit.
“We won’t defend the Polish border with a small deficit,” said Prime Minister Donald Tusk, defending a record 200 billion zloty ($55 billion) defense budget for 2026 — 4.83% of GDP, nearly triple NATO’s 2% minimum and higher than the U.S. at 3.2%.
Approximately 40% of this budget is funded through debt instruments via the state-owned bank BGK, allowing Warsaw to bypass constitutional debt limits and EU fiscal constraints. However, a 2025 report from the Łukasiewicz Research Network warned that relying on “off-the-shelf” hardware from the U.S. and South Korea could hinder domestic technological innovation.
Poland is looking toward the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program to mitigate these pressures. As a primary beneficiary, Warsaw could use SAFE funds to rebalance procurement toward domestic and European co-production.
The Asymmetry of Sabotage
Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Poland has become a testing ground for Russian sabotage tactics later seen elsewhere in Europe. A significant operation attributed to Russian intelligence was the fire that destroyed Warsaw’s Marywilska 44 shopping center, decimating 1,400 commercial units across 700,000 square feet.
The threat also extends to the skies. In the first four months of 2025 alone, systematic GPS interference originating from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad affected nearly 123,000 flights in the Baltic region, increasing fuel consumption and insurance risk.
“The asymmetry is clear,” said defense analyst Konrad Muzyka. He noted that scrambling F-16s and Dutch F-35s to intercept Russian decoy drones last September cost hundreds of thousands of zlotys in flight hours and missile expenditure.
Poland now faces up to 4,000 cyberattacks per day, many targeting critical infrastructure. In 2025, it surpassed the U.S., Ukraine, and Israel as the world’s most targeted country for politically motivated cyber incidents, and regularly ranks in the top three for ransomware attacks, accounting for 6% of all global incidents in the second half of last year.
Military expert Artur Dubiel says Russia is attempting to inflict maximum financial damage on Poland with minimal resources, aiming to exhaust resources and lower morale.
A Pan-European Challenge
Poland’s experience mirrors challenges across the continent, including cyberattacks on Italy’s Foreign Ministry and hundreds of acts of infrastructure sabotage in Germany. These actions are intended to fray the social fabric of the West.
At the Munich Security Conference on February 14, 2026, the British Prime Minister described these actions as “tearing at our social order.” Moscow recruits third-country nationals via messaging platforms to carry out these acts, maintaining deniability while increasing security costs across Europe.
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