The Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia (FPCI) hosted its first-ever Middle Powers Conference on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, highlighting a shifting global order where middle powers are increasingly relevant yet face significant political constraints.
- Economic Weight: G20 middle powers contribute approximately 60–70% of global GDP and drive the majority of global trade flows.
- Military Spending: Global defense spending reached $2.63 trillion in 2025, with Europe accounting for over 21%.
- Strategic Pivot: Middle powers are moving toward “multi-alignment” and flexible partnerships to reduce reliance on any single superpower.
The “Middle Power Moment”
Dino Patti Djalal, founder and chairman of the FPCI, described the current era as a “middle power moment,” stating that approximately 20 middle powers will play a significant role in shaping the next global order. He noted that while the world is no longer stable enough to rely solely on great powers, it is not yet structured enough for middle powers to lead.
In international relations, middle powers are defined as states that sit between great powers and smaller states. While they lack overwhelming military or economic dominance, they influence global affairs through diplomacy, multilateralism, and “niche diplomacy.”
Countries frequently identified in this category include Indonesia, Germany, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Brazil, South Africa, and Türkiye. These nations often act as bridge-builders and mediators to support a rules-based international order.
Structural Influence and Global Security
Data presented at the conference underscores the material weight of these nations. Beyond their contribution to global GDP, growth projections for 2026 indicate that emerging middle powers, such as India and Indonesia, continue to outpace the global average.
Defense spending has also seen a sharp increase, with many middle powers now spending above 2% of their GDP on military capabilities. In Asia, security concerns regarding China have specifically pushed India and South Korea to expand their military footprints.
Conference participants noted that this combined economic and military weight allows middle powers to stabilize global markets during shocks and contribute meaningfully to regional security architectures.
Navigating U.S. Foreign Policy Uncertainty
A central theme of the conference was the instability caused by the evolving direction of U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump. Panelists described U.S. policy as increasingly unpredictable and domestically driven.
Galip Dalay characterized the U.S. as being “both unreliable and indispensable,” a paradox that is forcing middle powers to diversify their strategic options.
Regional representatives highlighted the resulting pressures. Nasim Zehra noted that Pakistan is focusing diplomatic energy on preventing the U.S.-Iran conflict from escalating into war. Ralf Beste of Germany stated that European nations can no longer rely on the U.S. in the same way as before, while South Korea’s Moon Chung-In emphasized that dependence on the U.S. alone is no longer viable.
Pathways to Collective Action
To counter this instability, many nations are adopting “multi-alignment,” building flexible partnerships across different regions rather than choosing sides in superpower rivalries. Ebrahim Rasool advocated for a approach based on “mutuality and reciprocity” when dealing with superpowers.
The conference identified several concrete areas where middle powers can coordinate action, including:
- Energy security and critical minerals
- Conflict de-escalation
- North-South economic justice
- Digital governance and AI
- International law and human rights
ASEAN was highlighted as a successful model for this type of cooperation, serving as a hub for dialogue and conflict management in the Indo-Pacific. Indonesia, in particular, was viewed as a pivotal bridge between regional and global agendas.
While acknowledging that diverging interests and limited resources remain hurdles, the conference concluded that cooperation among middle powers is no longer optional, but the only way forward in a fragmented global system.
Primary Data Sources: Atlas Institute for International Affairs; Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Encyclopedia Britannica; European Parliament Think Tank; The International Institute for Strategic Studies; International Monetary Fund; Reuters; Visual Capitalist
Discover more from Archyworldys
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
