Rubio’s Munich Speech: A Conditional Offer to Europe?

European leaders initially welcomed what appeared to be a shift in tone from the United States at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) last weekend, only to realize the message remained largely unchanged: a vision of alignment based on what some perceive as restrictive ideological terms.

A Familiar Message in New Packaging

Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a speech markedly different in tone from the previous year’s address by JD Vance, which was a blunt critique of Europe’s values and agenda. Rubio’s remarks were met with a standing ovation from an audience including German defense and foreign ministers, and approximately 40 U.S. officials.

Rubio emphasized the enduring connection between the U.S. and Europe, stating that Americans see their destinies as intertwined and referring to the U.S. as “always a child of Europe.” However, a closer examination of Rubio’s speech – and a subsequent White House summary – revealed a continuation of themes previously expressed by Vance.

“Maga Terms” and Concerns Over Shared Values

The core concerns centered around issues familiar to the “Maga” political ideology: mass migration, the perceived erosion of traditional culture, the decline of Christian influence, concerns about welfare states, military strength, skepticism towards international institutions, and opposition to climate initiatives. The White House summary further highlighted priorities such as “sovereign nations,” “shared heritage,” “Christian foundations,” and “defence of western civilisation.”

Claudia Major of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs described the U.S. approach as “an offer of friendship – but on white, Christian, Maga terms.” Rubio stated the U.S. seeks allies “who are proud of their culture and their heritage” and share a common “great and noble civilisation.” This sentiment echoed rhetoric from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), according to Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group.

Reinforcing Alliances and Raising Concerns

Following the MSC, Rubio visited Slovakia and Hungary, meeting with leaders Robert Fico and Viktor Orbán, respectively – both known for their pro-Putin, anti-Brussels, and pro-Trump stances. During his visit to Hungary, Rubio hinted at potential financial support for Orbán, who faces elections in April.

This move was interpreted by some as a deliberate attempt to sow discord within the EU. French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the need for Europe to become a geopolitical power, focusing on defense, technology, and reducing reliance on major global powers.

European Pushback and a Shifting Dynamic

Despite initial reassurances, EU leaders expressed growing concerns. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat, criticized “fashionable” U.S. “Euro-bashing” and asserted that Europe is not experiencing “civilisational erasure.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that the culture war promoted by Maga is not representative of European values.

Discussions have begun regarding greater European strategic autonomy, including exploring the possibility of a unified European nuclear deterrent. As Le Monde noted in an editorial, the definition of “western civilisation” now differs significantly on both sides of the Atlantic, and Europeans are unwilling to relinquish their own understanding of it.